The Amazing Race 30 Editing Analysis and Predictions Week Five Edition

Yeah, I procrastinated with this one. I am going to keep it really short this week. I for one presume the storylines will shift dramatically after this Double U-Turn business.

WEEK FIVE WINNER’S EDIT PROJECTIONS (The following is the order of those who have the best chance of winning based on the edit set forth by production)


A strong and capable team that frequently narrates events and is shown interacting with other teams? And Phil emphasizing them as the first all-female team to win in seven seasons?

It’s not the most interesting winner’s edit per se, but it is the strongest of everyone in this crew.


The ring is on their finger and now their storyline moves into phase two–playing out their rivalry with a certain team.

If the rivalry is too prominent in tonight’s episode, then either Lucas & Brittany or that other team have to be eliminated sooner rather than later. TAR doesn’t like rivalries to play out for more than half a season. As it stands right now, this rivalry has been ongoing since leg three.

What we need is other teams to talk about Lucas & Brittany or a bit more narration from Lucas & Brittany to give them that more three-dimensional edit.

However, the potential of a winner’s edit is too high and tonight will be a big factor in determining what that potential is.


Some may be surprised to see Chris & Trevor being bumped up, but that’s only because their airtime jumped significantly when it was between them and Joey & Tim for last place. Typically when the eventual winners are in the bottom two for the first time, editors will really emphasize their close call with elimination. Primarily because this helps produce an underdog that the audience can root for.

Now what they need is to be acknowledged by the other teams.


Henry & Evan are down this week because I believe they are going to occupy the slot of “Fan Favourites Eliminated Close to the Finale”.

TAR has one of these every season. This helps market **shudder** future “all-star” seasons and frame a team as being worthy of a second chance. These teams tend to have an edit that is more geared towards the younger audience, and I think that’s the bulk of Henry & Evan’s appeal. The way they talk, the way they claim for others to not expect them to be physically fit, and the whole tooth chipper incident has really sculpted them for this role.

Now watch them win to prove me wrong. Especially when other teams have been talking about them since the beginning.


There is a lot of foreshadowing with this team.

Conor lives on Alex’s couch.
Conor helps take care of Alex’s cat.
Conor cannot enter a room with a sock on the door.
Conor can’t get a girl.
Conor fucks up every Roadblock.
Everything is Conor’s fault.
Alex is the golden boy. Even when he forgets half of a clue, it is treated as no big deal.

All signs point to Conor ruining it for the team, and that’d be hilarious because it perfectly fits their Kevin Smith-esque relationship.


One of them has a newborn child. . .and I already forget which one. Add in a dash of repetitive puns, and I don’t see these guys having a shot at winning.

LEG SIX PREDICTIONS (The following is the order I expect everyone to arrive at the next pit stop)

1) HENRY & EVAN – 4.4 Team Average

A Switchback based on knowing permutations seems like Henry & Evan’s style. Plus I think they’d be the type of team to use a U-Turn.

2)KRISTI & JEN – 2.4 Team Average

You can’t knock the X Games medalists off the podium. Ever.

3)ALEX & CONOR – 3.6 Team Average

There has been a clear top four and a clear bottom five or six since the start of the season. Henry & Evan, Kristi & Jen, and Alex & Conor have been dominating this season since the beginning with rare exceptions.

I can’t wait for Alex & Conor to compare the Znarf Switchback to what it is like to drive a car around a track.

4) CHRIS & TREVOR – 4.8 Team Average

There was a glitch in The Matrix, but I think their rightful position will be restored. It’ll be easier when I assume they won’t be involved the Double U-Turn madness.

5) LUCAS & BRITTANY – 6.0 Team Average

They are using the U-Turn. . .I just don’t know whether it’ll be used against them in the first spot or not.

Lucas & Brittany have only finished above sixth place in just one round out of five. It’s tough to give them enough credit yet to assume this will be a consistent trend from now on. Lucas built the shit out of a trebuchet and they collected flags from bulls. We need more, y’all.

6) ERIC & DANIEL – 6.8 Team Average

Eric & Daniel also had their one outlier finish in the last leg much like Lucas & Brittany did. That was also mostly thanks to their building skills.

But these guys have sucked at every other freakin’ thing thrown at them. Either they finish last or awfully close to it. Can you picture them sitting in their study researching permutations and word order probability in Czech?

I can’t.

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1 Response to The Amazing Race 30 Editing Analysis and Predictions Week Five Edition

  1. Chris Ho says:

    Heya, not sure if this is a recurring inside joke I’ve missed somewhere, but was just wondering what was the reason for omitting Cody/Jessica in these prediction posts?

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