It is the first of four double episodes this season, and producers decided to punish us all by having the NEL last week rather than this week. We will be saying goodbye to two teams unless another early NEL is implemented. That would be hilarious.
WEEK FOUR WINNER’S EDIT PROJECTIONS (The following is the order of those who have the best chance of winning based on the edit set forth by production)
1) KRISTI & JEN
“Will you guys be the fourth all-female team to win?!”
“You were dropped ten quadrillion miles from the seaport, but you still caught up and passed multiple teams at the task!”
“You vomited after your giving your all in a first place finish!”
“Did we mention how strong they are?”
Oh, this takes me back to the Nat & Kat days. Just remove their MDs with skis.
My buddy Ben has previously written a good piece on how all-female teams are edited in the American version of TAR. Here is a super brief summary of it:
a) Those sneaky/flirtatous villains who do well and are competitive. They must be dethroned!
b) Models/Cheerleaders who dwell near the bottom or who have no life experience and are what the middle-aged women watching at home often refer to as **shudder** “bimbos”. What a silly word.
c) The outliers. Your Amy & Mayas, Kisha & Jens, and Nat & Kats. You know, just a regular all-female team who isn’t being forced into one of the two archetypes. No super forced edits or anything like that.
2) HENRY & EVAN
“They are both physical AND mentally strong?! Such underdogs! C’mon viewers, this is the angle we, the producers, are presenting to you. Please buy into it even though Henry & Evan have a top level education, prepared for this race, and at least one of them has studied abroad. Such underdogs!”
3) ALEX & CONOR
Will Conor get his own? Will they continue to narrate what’s going on? Will we accept their justification for why they temporarily fall in the overall standings? Will they continue to receive a favourable edit?
I know it is a big drop between the top two teams and then Alex & Conor are the start of this second tier of winner’s edits. This week should be a big indicator if they have this spot locked down. They have been a consistent presence since the beginning.
4) LUCAS & BRITTANY
Después Lucas propone casarse con Brittany, necesitaremos una nueva trama por esta pareja o su historia terminan aquí. Lo veremos? O eso es todo?
5) JOEY & TIM
Editors really wanted to establish that this pair is terrible at every aspect of this race. Well, in the bits that aren’t about eating random shit whenever they are handling an animal or a frita.
That can mean one of two things:
a) We are going to see a major long-term underdog edit develop as they learn how to overcome their weaknesses;
b) We are getting an explanation for why they will be eliminated very soon.
I am going to assume the latter.
6) CHRIS & TREVOR
They’ve had a couple of one-liners and we learn a bit about their background. I feel like we need an explosion of content soon.
To quote Nicole Scherzinger in an interview where she described her fellow Pussycat Dolls as “sassy but classy,” I can’t really think of any other way to describe Chris & Trevor.
I s’pose I shall continue to keep an eye on the subtlety of their edit.
7) CEDRIC & SHAWN
Cedric works alone like Kung Fury. Cedric took his backpack with him for some reason. Cedric missed out on Shawn calling out his name at the end of the Roadblock. Cedric accidentally helped Shawn with the first Roadblock. Cedric is old. Like, really old. Cedric has had three million heart attacks. Cedric makes basketball references. Cedric will be the six million dollar man if anything else happens to him.
Yeah, this is a clear case of creating a funny little subplot for a team that won’t come close to winning. It is part inspirational and part comedy. No real substance as to the arc that editors like to create with their winners.
8) ERIC & DANIEL
They make puns that induce the eyerolls of Allan Wu. Allan Wu.
By the way, have they mentioned of them has a newborn yet? Have the editors put in any effort at all to communicate how these guys are different from one another or the unique nature of their relationship?
Yeah, their edit is pretty atrociouis.
LEG FOUR PREDICTIONS (The following is the order I expect everyone to arrive at the next pit stop a.k.a who can win a game of bocce ball)
1) KRISTI & JEN – 2.333 Team Average
Editors are screaming at us that Kristi & Jen are going to be nearly unstoppable very soon. Episode three has been setting us up for this storyline. Therefore, they must go on a bit of a streak starting this round, yes?
A leg that is primarily outdoors seems like their thing.
2) ALEX & CONOR – 4.0 Team Average
I see Alex & Conor choking at the first Head-to-Head round of bocce ball, but then recover shortly after that.
3) CHRIS & TREVOR – 4.0 Team Average
Their fourth place streak needs to last four legs. And yes, I am aware what number I have assigned them for this ranking in leg four. Once leg five hits, they are free to arrive at the pit stop in a different position.
4) HENRY & EVAN – 4.0 Team Average
It’s a Head-to-Head. Bocces and fritas will seep into their nightmares and drag them down a couple of spots. Isn’t it fun when the outcome of the race all comes down to one task?
5) CEDRIC & SHAWN – 6.67 Team Average
Bocce ball is like basketball but you go underhand rather than overhand, and it’s grass instead of a basket. . .OK, I just assume they’ll have better aim than Shaq from the free throw line.
6) ERIC & DANIEL – 8.0 Team Average
From Cedric & Shawn downwards, these four teams along with April & Sarah have been a clear bottom five in contrast to the other five teams. It’s like TAR 28 where we wait for a very predictable boot order to play out until we get down to our last five teams.
While I think the clock is ticking for Eric & Daniel, the idea of them showing up late to another Head-to-Head and barely avoiding elimination again would be a hilarious running joke.
I would put them in the seventh spot for the Head-to-Head lolz, but that would be too crazy wouldn’t it?
7) LUCAS & BRITTANY – 7.0 Team Average
Ellos no pueden ser eliminado hasta Lucas propone, pero yo creo que van a ser otra pelea cerca. La pareja solo no pueden quite put it todos juntos hacer bien en any of las rondas thus far.
I don’t think they’ll ever have any major successes, but they aren’t prone to major mistakes which means I assume they’ll squeak by like this for the next couple rounds.
8) JOEY & TIM – 6.333 Team Average
They suck at navigation, they suck at following their gut (only temporarily enlarging it), and they suck at challenges.
Their time is VERY limited.
LEG FIVE (WHO CAN WIN A REAL LEG OF THE AMAZING RACE)
1) ALEX & CONOR – How the hell am I supposed to know their average for leg five?
If I say you guys will win the fifth leg, will you promise not to make any racing puns? Because I’ll punch you guys if you do.
In all seriousness, a leg win seems inevitable for these guys. This season has had a clear top five and bottom five since the end of the first episode, and it is only a matter of time before they win a leg.
2) KRISTI & JEN
Unless they get royally screwed over by a taxi, it is tough to envision a round where Kristi & Jen are knocked off the podium. They truly are Natalie & Meaghan 2.0. I am curious if a weakness will finally be exposed.
3) HENRY & EVAN
Any leg without a Head-to-Head is a leg where these two can do very well. Only a U-Turn could push back a team that is clearly very well-prepared. I assume it will take a couple more rounds before they feel the pressure and start to over-think things.
Teams like this tend to have one major meltdown that defines them, but I don’t think it is coming quite yet. For now they can cling onto the Ernie & Cindy label that has been assigned to them.
4) CHRIS & TREVOR
Their streak of finishing in fourth place will end here. And yes, I know what number is assigned to them in this ranking.
5) LUCAS & BRITTANY
Ustedes ain’t no Chad & Stephanie. Una pareja recién comprometida no van a ser automáticamente se llevan casa la victoria por el episodio.
6) ERIC & DANIEL
We will probably never see them anywhere near the top of the standings, but I do think these guys have enough endurance to survive what will most likely be a physical round in France.
7) CEDRIC & SHAWN
It is going to be them or Eric & Daniel. Something tells me that Cedric’s endurance is going to be zapped by this point. The Morocco leg absolutely destroyed him, and I can’t see him being saved by another stationary bocce ball task.