Amazing Race Canada 5 Editing Analysis and Finale Predictions

I go on vacation for a few days starting today (and no, it’s not to crash the #AfterTheRace special in Toronto–no seriously, it isn’t). So I better post my analysis now while there’s still time.

FINALE WEEK WINNER’S EDIT PROJECTIONS (The following is the order of those who have the best chance of winning based on the edit set forth by production)


This is the outcome I do not want to happen at all, but it is the one I must reluctantly accept has the strongest possibility.

After 83 Give’Rs, a ton of airtime at the beginning of the season, a cool down midseason, and another explosion of airtime at season’s end while preserving a season long rivalry with Sam & Paul intact as well as a series of “inspiring” messages means Kevin & Ryan have the best chance of winning this season.

Because they haven’t been able to topple Sam & Paul yet, this open-ended storyline should conclude with only one ending–Kevin & Ryan taking down Sam & Paul at the last possible moment.

From there, the debate will begin amongst superfans if Kevin & Ryan are not only worse winners than the VoldeMussolinis, but perhaps the worst winners of any international season ever over the past sixteen years. That’ll be fun. -_-


“Sam & Paul will never see us coming.”

There were a couple of quotes that hint at Korey & Ivana pulling off an upset. However, Korey & Ivana beating Sam & Paul at the Double Battle could very well be the end of it. Perhaps their time as the underdogs are already over. . .but what if it isn’t?

It is tough to buy when Sam & Paul and Kevin & Ryan’s rivalry has been abused on our TV screens for months now, and while it would be one of my favourite endings ever, I don’t see Korey & Ivana humiliating the nature of this rivalry at the last moment where neither party wins.

It would be like if Ralph Nader or Ross Perot won an American election.


It could be a record five consecutive wins in TARC that Sam & Paul may possess by the end of next week, but I don’t see it happening.

Their minimal airtime at the start of the season, and the ongoing storyline of “somebody has to beat Sam & Paul” pretty much guarantees this has to be the end of the line for them.

If Sam & Paul do win, we would see a few more vulnerabilities along the way like we did with The VoldeMussolinis in international travel or Steph & Kristen with machetes to create that suspense or doubt for the viewer.

A Sam & Paul victory would put an end to one of the flattest seasons ever.

In other words, we desperately need a Korey & Ivana to redeem this season just a little bit. And hey, a Sam & Paul win might keep this season out of the cellar with TAR 24.

FINAL LEG PREDICTIONS (The following is the order I expect everyone to arrive at the next pit stop)

1) KOREY & IVANA – 4.2 Team Average

These teams are all relatively even when it comes to brains and physical strength, in general.

I am a sucker for wanting the upset, and I think Korey & Ivana are more than overdue for some good luck with taxi drivers. It is Sam & Paul’s or Kevin & Ryan’s turn to be faced with a cabbie that doesn’t know what the hell they are doing.

And Korey & Ivana’s physical endurance should help them tap into that last reserve of energy to give themselves a boost over the other teams.


2) SAM & PAUL – 2.1 Team Average

Studying or being tested on trivia has been Sam & Paul’s greatest weakness this season. These are the types of tasks we see in the finale, and we can’t help but think back to Paul messing up the citizenship test.

And those who start the final leg in first tend to choke by the end.

3) KEVIN & RYAN – 3.3 Team Average

My expectations of Kevin & Ryan being able to solve puzzles is cautiously low. Let’s hope they meet my low expectations, and do whatever they can to refrain from exceeding it.

That’s it. Let’s put an end to a predictable season and Canada’s greatest summer time disappointment ever.

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