Amazing Race Canada 5 Editing Analysis and Week Eight Predictions

We still have over a third of the season to go. Is it just me or does this season feel like it has been going on for years?

WEEK EIGHT WINNER’S EDIT PROJECTIONS (The following is the order of those who have the best chance of winning based on the edit set forth by production)

1) ADAM & ANDREA

In the aftermath of the U-Turn incident, Adam & Andrea come out on top as the good guys. The sincerity of Andrea’s apologies to Andrea & Ebonie were very apparent. In fact, most of Andrea & Ebonie’s negative confessionals were directed at Korey & Ivana rather than Adam & Andrea.

Mix this in with their three-dimensional edit and absolutely nothing has changed Adam & Andrea’s Winner’s Edit dominance.

2) KOREY & IVANA

Korey & Ivana’s content has picked up A LOT over the past few weeks. The episode title and a whole minute dedicated to Korey’s act of public urination is the content needed to lighten up this dynamic.

A new storyline was born as Korey & Ivana proclaimed that they no longer want to fight for last. This means Korey & Ivana will be winning a leg at some point. Will it be the next one or the one that helps them cross the finish line in first place?

If Korey & Ivana win today’s leg, I will be dropping their position in this ranking near the bottom as their new storyline would already be resolved.

3) KEVIN & RYAN

It wasn’t so much as them dropping this week as it was Korey & Ivana getting a boost.

I would be lying if reverting back to Give’R Mania won’t drop them in this Winner’s Edit Projection sooner rather than later. Their rivalry with Sam & Paul appears to be fading a little bit–I was expecting more of a buildup at the Double Battle.

4) KAREN & BERT

Karen & Bert continue to progress through the race independent of everyone else around them. You need relationships with other teams to have a winner’s edit, y’all. Whether those relationships be positive or negative.

5) SAM & PAUL

You guys could win the next three legs in a row and have 90 minutes of airtime between now and the finale, and your position still wouldn’t change.

LEG EIGHT PREDICTIONS (The following is the order I expect everyone to arrive at the next pit stop)

1) KOREY & IVANA – 4.57 Team Average

“We don’t want to fight for last anymore.”

*Gets first in the very next leg*

As long as international taxis don’t screw them again, I think Korey & Ivana could do very well in Panama City.

2) SAM & PAUL – 2.57 Average

Sam & Paul very rarely make mistakes this season, and have had a ridiculously consistent run. They haven’t fallen off the podium since the leg in Nelson where everything was wonky for everybody that round.

3) ADAM & ANDREA – 3.0 Team Average

They are probably still pissed that they have that lone seventh place finish to their name. You drop their leg two self-drive mishap, and you have a team that has been either first or third in every round possible. Adam & Andrea have a habit of doing very well in international legs. Adam’s backpacking experience comes in handy when combined with Andrea’s resilience.

4) KEVIN & RYAN – 3.86 Team Average

Kevin & Ryan reached the podium for the first time since the season premiere where they slaughtered everybody in Vancouver. Since then a mixture of Express Passes, U-Turns, and the existence of Andrea & Ebonie have kept them alive in this race.

They aren’t quite as calm and focused like Sam & Paul, or as well-rounded as an Adam & Andrea.

As far as I know, they haven’t traveled much in Central America in comparison to Southeast Asia. In fact, Kevin & Ryan didn’t make it onto the podium in either Asian leg.

5) KAREN & BERT – 4.71 Team Average

Karen & Bert have always beaten a minimum of two teams every single leg but also always defeated by a minimum of three teams every leg.

There are times where you think Karen & Bert are going to do really well, but then find a way to squander away their lead because of a simple mistake.

There are times where you think Karen & Bert are going to be eliminated, but then Bert uses his muscles or Karen uses her brain to make up for lost time.

But I think they will finally hit the cellar, and the final NEL will save them.

I assume today will be a NEL due to TAR Canada always having their final NEL with five teams remaining since the mishap in season one. During season one, the final NEL was at Final Four and had a U-Turn–all four teams agreed to not U-Turn each other because the NEL was obvious and led to it not even being aired on TV.

TAR US has also gone in this direction as they have only had a Final Four NEL in recent years when they do the twist of having four teams in the final round. Otherwise, their final NEL is with five teams or more.

It also fits with TAR Canada’s theme of always being more obsessive with sports culture by having a quarterfinal, a semifinal, and a final to end a season.

In fact, the TAR Canada structure has become predictable enough since season two that I could probably foresee how it will go down for the remainder of the season:

Tonight: Final NEL.

Leg 9: Speed Bump and U-Turn.

Leg 10: Double Battle.

Leg 11: Finale with three teams.

I am curious if future seasons of TAR US and TAR Canada will move away from having their final NEL with five teams left once people catch onto that pattern. Maybe it will be like Survivor where you use all of your NELs extremely early just to ensure you have as many contestants interacting as long as possible without screwing with the core format of the game.

 

 

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