Have my predictions and analysis changed much since last round’s Non-Elimination Leg?
Spoiler Alert: Not much.
WEEK EIGHT WINNER’S EDIT PROJECTIONS (The following is the order of those who have the best chance of winning based on the edit set forth by production)
1) Brooke & Scott
Brooke & Scott have been at the centre of this season’s narrative since day one.
Remember everything I said last week? Nothing has changed except for one small thing.
Brooke initially broke down at a Roadblock, but proved her worth by leapfrogging two teams on her own when painting the mask. That is huge for a contestant who has been edited as being completely dependent and prone to melting down since the beginning.
Also, they are shown as commanding and engineering the entire social game. Even though London and Liz refused to help Brooke, London found herself at Brooke & Scott’s mercy at the pit stop.
If Liz & Michael had beat London & Logan and Brooke & Scott to the mat, London & Logan would have felt really stupid for following Brooke & Scott to the mat.
I do not want to repeat everything I said last week verbatim; Brooke & Scott’s winner’s edit is very strong.
2) Becca & Floyd
I think there is still a higher chance of Becca & Floyd being the penultimate boots as opposed to being the winners of this season.
Let’s start with the obvious: Becca & Floyd’s edit is very positive. However, is it too obvious?
They want to try and push Tara & Joey out of the race. I do not think this will be settled within the next two episodes.
In a season where all of the other teams are in some sort of conflict, will it be a message that strangers who work together and stay happy will succeed at The Amazing Race? Especially when Dana & Matt were our winners last season?
I am not sold on it yet. Not quite.
3) Liz & Michael
Pearl is the first loved one to be specifically mentioned this season. That is a strong case for Liz & Michael to have an outside shot of winning. If not, it will be a bit surprising to see a team with a significant backstory to go home in the middle of the boot order.
Producers have also made it a point that Liz & Michael suck almost as much as Meredith & Maria or Kurt & Bergen when it comes to self-drive legs. In what will likely be the last self-drive leg of the season, wouldn’t it be an ideal conclusion to this storyline of Liz & Michael can put their pieces together and get past the final self-drive leg.
It would be better than if it is just “their self-driving started out shit, and it ended out on shit”.
Lastly, they have a new rivalry with the invisible London & Logan that needs to be settled sooner rather than later. I have a feeling Liz & Michael will win this rivalry.
4) Tara & Joey
They should be edited as a stronger force by this point. It is kind of funny that they are seen as “the older underdogs” when they are both younger than 50, have jobs in law enforcement or military, and are currently tied for the second best average this season.
Their only other storyline is that a couple of the younger teams want to push them out, including Becca & Floyd. I do not think this will be resolved anytime soon, and may be a storyline reserved for the finale.
5) Matt & Redman
Vanck & Ashton are eliminated.
They got their first place win.
Their story is over. Hell, they could even be going home tonight somehow. I doubt it, though. I think they will probably go home in fifth place. They will need to find a new beat tonight for that to change.
6) London & Logan
To steal Survivor’s Edgic page, London & Logan’s chart looks like this:
They were better off being invisible. Signs are currently pointing to potential revenge at the final U-Turn board of the season. If not, they will go home quietly in fifth place.
They sure as hell ain’t winning unless a revolution happens in tonight’s episode.
WEEK EIGHT PREDICTIONS (The following is the order I expect everyone to arrive at the next pit stop)
1) Tara & Joey – 3.29 Team Average
Just get your third damn win already. Stop being such a tease. I bet Tara speaks Greek too.
2) Matt & Redmond – 2.71 Team Average
After making everyone feel silly for U-Turning them the first time, I think everyone will be discouraged to do so a second time.
Everyone will be waiting for Matt & Redmond to choke, but it won’t be happening yet. Give ’em time.
3) Becca & Floyd – 3.29 Team Average
We rarely hear what other teams think about Becca & Floyd. Beyond teams expressing an interest in going after London & Logan or Tara & Joey, there is not much information regarding everyone’s perspective of Becca & Floyd.
Becca & Floyd have a good rhythm going. I do not see this week being the one where they bite the dust. . .wait, aren’t we over the Freddy Mercury references? Perhaps I have been spending too much time around Tank Abbott.
By the way, Becca & Floyd, Tara & Joey, and Matt & Redman have been our top three for many weeks in a row this season. I expect that to remain intact once again.
4) Brooke & Scott – 5.43 Team Average
Brooke & Scott’s social game is the best of any team left in the race. I do not foresee a scenario where Brooke & Scott are U-Turned this week.
That should buy them enough time to survive whatever high-strung panic attack Brooke or Scott may have in another self-drive leg. Furthermore, other teams seem to be keen on advancing Brooke & Scott in the Final Three.
There is something about Brooke that may or may not make other teams think that she might choke under the pressure of the final leg.
5) Liz & Michael – 4.57 Team Average
It just seems too easy. Too easy that the team who always gets lost on self-drive legs will go home on a self-drive leg with a
lame and pointless Speed Bump in addition to having a really good chance of being U-Turned too.
Besides, we have a certain INV1 team in the form of London & Logan who didn’t get any airtime until this past week. I think Liz & Michael could pull it off. London & Logan always lose ground whenever they have to perform a task while Liz & Michael beat London & Logan at most tasks.
Another team may U-Turn London & Logan simply because of being the only team left that has been caught deceiving some of the other teams that remain.
Liz & Michael may be spared this week. Maybe.
6) London & Logan – 6.0 Team Average
Even though Liz & Michael have showed up last to a pit stop three times, they definitely haven’t been the weakest team on paper.
London & Logan never do well at tasks, and with a U-Turn on the horizon, they will be easy to U-Turn as a weak as well as a deceitful team. That is a horrible combination if you are crossing your fingers hoping to avoid the crosshairs that another team has aimed at you.
After an abnormal spike in airtime last week, it would not be surprising to see London & Logan go home as quickly as they showed up.
Well, that’s it. I decided to keep it short and sweet this week. I assume it is because I had almost nothing new to offer for this leg. Hopefully I have much more to say next week once this elimination is settled.