It is time to check in with my analysis and predictions.
By the way, did you know I co-host a podcast about all of the English language international versions of The Amazing Race? As TAR 29 progresses, we are fast approaching our 200th podcast. Feel free to listen to my incredible impressions.
WEEK SEVEN WINNER’S EDIT PROJECTIONS (The following is the order of those who have the best chance of winning based on the edit set forth by production)
1) Brooke & Scott
Brooke & Scott were at the centre of last week’s episode. In fact, they have been at the centre of nearly everything that has aired on TV halfway through the season. Endless working relationships with other teams, commentary on what others are doing, commentary from others as to what Brooke & Scott are doing, Scott overcoming his fear of heights, Brooke knowing how to get help from others when she is breaking down and knowing what she needs from Scott to survive all contribute to a massive edit.
If they do not make Final Three, I will be stunned. The winner’s edit is currently in their court.
2) Matt & Redman
Remember when I said last week that there is a really good chance Vanck & Ashton would be going home because producers do not want a storyline to drag for a whole season?
Well, I was right.
The two dudes are slowly changing their label from “bullies” to “competitive” in the eyes of the casual fan. If this transition continues, they are a reasonable secondary contender to win this season.
However, if it evolves into Matt & Redman being constantly referred to as the borderline unbeatable foes, then they will be great competitors to be toppled in the season finale.
“They beat nearly everybody despite being U-Turned. They are the only dude-dude team. Look at Matt climbing things. Look at Redman using some of his cunning. . .no, ALL of his cunning. Who will possibly beat them?!”
If it turns into that, then yeah, Matt & Redman ain’t winning.
3) Tara & Joey
At this rate, I could see Tara & Joey quietly enter the Final Three and be the team that picks up the bronze medal at the end of the season.
They haven’t been part of any of the major moments this season regardless of their recent dominance. If Tara & Joey do not receive any credit for the role they are playing by the end of the episode, I will drop them in the rankings to the second-to-last spot without hesitation. They are definitely receiving more content than a certain team I expect to go home next, but it is has to be -meaningful- content.
4) Liz & Michael
I am having a tough time getting a read on Liz & Michael’s edit at the moment. The whole “I am sorry, but you are a jackass” deviation at the start of the episode was a fun distraction. It seems like all of Liz & Michael’s amusing dialogue are just funny asides that don’t have anything to do with the core storyline of the season.
That could change, though.
5) Becca & Floyd
Team Fun would be the perfect team to go home in the penultimate round as the fan favourites. If you are receiving an edit that is over-the-top positive, chances are producers are setting you up for an invitation to a future season rather than ending your story with a victory this season.
6) That Other Team
I am sure somebody from Reddit will tell me I am wrong.
WEEK SEVEN PREDICTIONS (The following is the order I expect everyone to arrive at the next pit stop)
1) Tara & Joey – 3.33333 Team Average
Tara & Joey would have scored the hat trick if not for picking the wrong Detour option. I know Tara has an unaired physical injury, but c’mon, she is in the army. Do people really think her racing ability will be greatly impacted? I see her toughing it out and winning her third round of the season. Her pahtnah would agree.
2) Matt & Redmond – 3.0 Team Average
It will be anti-climatic if Matt & Redmond’s “WE WANT TO FINISH FIRST!” storyline comes to an end just one round after they mention it. I presume they will bag a couple of silver medals before they grasp the gold.
Otherwise, what’s the point of airing that comment?
3) Becca & Floyd – 3.5 Team Average
While other teams are hungry for a first place finish, Becca & Floyd are just hungry for fun. Their youth has been a benefit rather than a hindrance up to this point. I will be surprised if they do not end up on the podium this episode.
4) Brooke & Scott – 5.66667 Team Average
Brooke & Scott have finished between fourth and seventh place on every leg during the first half of play. For a team, or rather an individual, who has received a huge reaction from the audience you would think their finishes are either really high or really low.
But nope. The two times Brooke & Scott finished second-to-last were in rounds that were edited as foregone conclusions in terms of who was going to finish last.
Unlike Michael who is becoming progressively discombobulated, Brooke has maintained that same high strung attitude since day one. She is being consistent.
This round appears to be very social as teams will be racing through Venezia, and if we know one thing about Brooke & Scott, they are socially savvy people.
I see them hovering around the middle this episode. . .and I am sure will be referred to as bullies by the online community regardless of what happens.
5) Liz & Michael – 4.3333 Team Average
Is it just me or is Michael becoming progressively unraveled over the past couple weeks? We will probably see more hilarious conflict between him and Liz, but I get the feeling Michael will bring the team down as the race goes on. It will be interesting to see how he controls his emotions entering the second half of the season.
Just thank god there is no self-driving for Liz & Michael this week.
6) London & Logan – 6.166667 Team Average
Well, no matter what happens to London & Logan tomorrow night–they are guaranteed to improve their current statistical standing. It will likely be a NEL as we still have two more to burn through this season. Hopefully editors are generous with their airtime for London & Logan over the next two episodes.
P.S. Why is the online community hating on Natalie & Nadiya this week? Where the hell did that come from?