NOTE: I did not do a Predictions and Editing Analysis blog for episodes two and three. So don’t bother wasting your time searching for them. I was away backpacking at the time. Have I mentioned that yet?
Well, producers decided to be mean to me this week as two episodes are airing back-to-back. I assume this means the first leg will be a NEL and the following leg will be an elimination.
Therefore, my editing analysis will apply to episode four, and my predictions will apply to who will be eliminated in episode five.
WEEK FOUR WINNER’S EDIT PROJECTIONS (The following is the order of those who have the best chance of winning based on the edit set forth by production)
1) VANCK & ASHTON
“We’re polar opposites. He is a numbers and ‘asks people to listen to Iron Maiden with me, baby’ type of person and I am a words and ‘come with me Friday, but don’t say maybe’ type of person.
Vanck & Ashton are the epitome of what the audience wanted to see–complete strangers from different walks of life being forced to work together in The Amazing Race. No other team has this relationship.
They have been edited as a strong team, and most importantly, Vanck & Ashton came out the good guys in their conflict with Matt & Redman.
Strong team. Good guys. Significant content. Fits in with the theme of the season. Shown interacting with other teams.
Ladies and gentlemen, Vanck & Ashton are on the cusp of a solid winner’s edit.
2) SCOTT & BROOKE
There is a clear story developing with Scott & Brooke. Either they overcome their mutual-but-somehow-different go-getter attitudes and successfully cooperate to win the game, or their mutua-but-somehow-different go-getter attitudes trigger a disastrous exit from the season.
Editors have invested a lot of time making the audience ponder how this mystery will unfold. In contrast to how other teams have been edited this season, I am smelling the early odour of a winner’s edit.
3) BECCA & FLOYD
We are receiving a lot of content about Becca & Floyd. In fact, much of their personal background and the relationship between each other has been covered extensively. Becca threatened to break Floyd’s nose without receiving too much flack from the online community. Imagine if Redman threatened to break Floyd’s nose?
Man, he wouldn’t have a leg to stand on.
Becca & Floyd are definitely our central characters. The only downside is they have not been seen interacting with other teams much since the premiere. Any winning team has to have an active relationship on-screen with at least one other team. Luckily, this is only episode three which gives Becca & Floyd a bit of time.
4) LIZ & MICHAEL
PHIL: You are the best performing team here!
My god Phil, do you not bother plugging in a few numbers? However, Phil incorrectly praising Liz & Michael as the strongest team in the game is a very positive piece of footage to air on TV.
I expect a 4th place “shucks, they choked right before the finale” type of edit that we have seen many times before over the years. In the words of Drake, they started at the bottom and now they’re at the (roof)top after multiple victories. You can’t have a bigger switch than that in TAR unless they expand the roster to twelve teams.
Liz & Michael will need more substantial storytelling in the weeks to climb any higher.
5) MATTHOD MAN AND REDMAN
How high are Matt & Redmond this week? Not very.
In their two-week showdown with Vanck & Ashton thus far, Redman came out as the bad guy as very few people showed sympathy for him being U-Turned. Matt is guilty by association as he is the Dolph or Kearney to Matt’s Nelson. Ha ha!
P.S. Could they be our villains of the season?
6) TARA & JOEY
You would think the team responsible for eliminating the early frontrunners would have talked about it more in their confessionals or receive a significant surge in airtime.
But that is not the case. I see Tara & Joey as the likable “older” team that quietly goes home midway through the season. They are not part of any major rivalries or storylines.
Perhaps Joey would have received more airtime if he swore less. Hey, Nate & Jenn started saying “fudge” after their warning at the end of the first leg in TAR 12.
7) LONDON & LOGAN
London tried to weave a basket with her almighty crocheting skills. It failed. Other than her resemblance to Sarah Jessica Parker, I have no other notes about London.
I suppose that exceeds the notes I have about Bauer, though.
8) SHAMIR & SARA
After Shamir’s and the fact one of the commercial cliffhangers was Shamir yelling at Sara to help him balance the desk on his head in the third episode means that Shamir continues to get the shaft by the editors since his groin injury occurred.
Considering a preview for tonight shows Shamir suffers a hand injury indicates that one of the most negative edits in TAR history will continue.
Don’t get me wrong, Shamir & Sara will be around for a while. However, I cannot see how Shamir & Sara could win this season.
WEEK FIVE PREDICTIONS (The following is the order I expect everyone to arrive at the next pit stop)
1) MATT & REDMAN – 3.33 Team Average
Matt & Redman are on a roll when it comes to the challenges. They were U-Turned but beat half of the teams in the cast. The leg five location will likely be fairly physical. I see Matt & Redman claiming first place.
2) VANCK & ASHTON – 4.0 Team Average
A Matt & Redman vs. Vanck & Ashton rivalry is one nobody saw coming. Please make this happen, producers.
3) TARA & JOEY – 5.0 Team Average
Tara & Joey are quietly finding their rhythm. I see them sliding into the podium this week without many teams taking notice.
4) LIZ & MICHAEL – 4.0 Team Average
You can’t expect them to finish dead last in the season premiere and then win the next eleven legs in a row, right? They have to falter a bit at some point.
5) BECCA & FLOYD – 5.0 Team Average
It will take a couple of rounds to shake off the cobwebs from Floyd’s borderline blunder. Don’t expect the #FUNMeter to be recovered right away. Next week will be a different story, though.
6) SCOTT & BROOKE – 5.33 Team Average
Give them a bit more time and they will eventually iron out the flaws in terms of teamwork. For now, they shall continue to struggle.
7) SHAMIR & SARA – 7.0 Team Average
I don’t how they will do it, but I am holding out hope that Shamir & Sara finish last on the NEL, and then barely scrape by in the following round to piss off producers. That would be awesome.
8) LONDON & LOGAN – 7.0 Team Average
Last week saw their peak in performance, but that was even when London had to ditch a task directly related to her profession. I have not seen either of them excel at any of the tasks yet this season. Tie this into their nearly invisible edit, and I have a tough time believing we will see them on our colour TV screens next week.
Alright. That does it for me this week. Now watch me be wrong as I suffer from Prediction and Editing Rust.