The Amazing Race Canada 4 Finale Predictions and Editing Analysis

So. Uh. Frankie & Amy turned out to be the team who got the 4th Place Fan Favourite boot slot for this year.

Jet & Dave. Sukhi & Jinder. Simi & Ope. Frankie & Amy. Brutal.

Now we are down to three teams.

We could have our first Lesbian couple to win The Amazing Race.

We could have our first First Nations team win The Amazing Race AND the first father-daughter team to win too.

We could have our first RTV crossover from a different show win The Amazing Race.

No matter what, history will be made tonight.



steph kristen

The season’s story has strongly hinted at an all-female team winning this season. Since Steph & Kristen are the only all-female team remaining, it is tough to picture them as an editing underdog heading into this finale.

From day one, Steph & Kristen have been made out to be the most competitive team from the opening minute of this game. Much like the VoldeMussolinis of the previous season, the entire course of the game has revolved around them. Everybody has wanted to take ’em out but nobody has had the opportunity to do so.

They have made deals with several teams along the way, and multiple betrayals have occurred. Whether it be Emmett & Jillian abandoning them at the Express Pass task, protecting Frankie & Amy, using the U-Turn twice, or slightly misleading Joel & Ashley.

None of this has shown to be done out of maliciousness, but rather out of a severe competitive drive. Unlike Meaghan & Natalie, Steph & Kristen have had a more dynamic edit and possess personalities which are better suited for television. They also haven’t been made out to be fools by a couple of angry dudes from Quebec.

Furthermore, the obstacle of Steph’s finger injury is the last remaining loose end. Can she overcome it and go down as one of the strongest all-female teams to participate in any season worldwide of TAR?

Lastly, it is going to be odd to see a team win that has a near identical story to a team that won TAR Vietnam: All Stars a couple of months earlier. How bizarre is that?


ashley joel

The VoldeMussolinis recovered from Cabotage and still won the season just one week later. I will hopefully have an article defending Ashley within the next 24 hours, but for now all I’ll say is that Ashley didn’t go out of her way to be spiteful against Frankie & Amy.  I think she has earned enough forgiveness from the audience that she has a better shot at winning than Emmett & Jillian.

There really aren’t any storylines left for Joel & Ashley other than “Can they be the first First Nations team to win?” The part about them being a father-daughter duo isn’t even mentioned heading into the finale. That makes me think their chances of winning are much smaller than Steph & Kristen’s.

I hope Joel gets a significant amount of airtime in the finale and gets remembered in the overall TAR canon. . .or at least get more airtime than Rita & Yvette did. That would be nice.


emmett jillian

If Emmett & Jillian win tonight. . .bravo editors, bravo. You guys are stepping up your game after years and years of me doing great at picking winners. Between this, Dana & Matt, and Gino & Jesse to a lesser extent, I will be blown away if Emmett & Jillian walk away with the title.

Jillian winning both Big Brother Canada and TAR Canada in the span of three years would be mindblowing. She would just have to sit and wait for Canadian Survivor to be green-lighted in order to attempt the triple crown.

Emmett crumbled under the pressure during the BBCAN 1 finale.
Jillian would have also crumbled under the pressure if not for Topaz’s blunder.

It certainly does not help things when a duo of exes have to work together on the final leg. We can go back to fifteen years ago to know how that has worked out in the past.

Emmett & Jillian winning would really troll everything the producers and audience have wanted since last year ended. In a cast full of minority teams, a push for an all-female team to take down the title, and unique parent-child teams playing strong only to be foiled by a couple of young White slight mactor-esque former romantic partners from the least reputable competitive reality show would be top-notch comedy.

Emmett & Jillian have been nowhere near the centre of any of the storytelling this season–they have been completely isolated in their own little bubble with Jillian’s amusing hysterical reactions, and Emmett demonstrating total apathy to everything and everyone around him.

This can’t be a team that wins. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them f–k up a task early and not be in the running for the prize.


1) STEPH & KRISTEN – 2.1 Team Average

If Steph & Kristen did not go for the Express Pass that has been irrelevant for over five years with one minor exception (Gary & Mallory), their average would be hovering around 1.7 right now. Damn.

Unless every task in the finale is repairing cars, Steph & Kristen have proven to be better at every type of task compared to Joel & Ashley and Emmett & Jillian.

The only team who has won a leg in Canada other than Steph & Kristen is Emmett & Jillian. If Emmett & Jillian win, Steph & Kristen will be kicking themselves for eternity that they could not oust the one team who could occasionally beat them since the opening round.

And if Joel & Ashley beat them. . .well, they will probably sleep better at night. Joel & Ashley have only won one leg, and that was an international leg.

2) JOEL & ASHLEY – 3.5 Team Average

Unless Steve Harvey is there at the finish line to screw up who won, Mrs. Universe will be runner-up this year.

Outside of Joel’s two mechanic Roadblocks, Joel & Ashley have only defeated Steph & Kristen when Steph & Kristen went for the Express Pass.

In other words, Joel & Ashley have never toppled Steph & Kristen in a “fair fight”. Whatever that means in competitive reality TV.

3) EMMETT & JILLIAN – 2.6 Team Average

If the shoe does not fit, you must acquit. This could be an uncomfortable finale for Jillian.

Emmett & Jillian are a bizarre team. They have won as many legs as Steph & Kristen, and have equaled them in terms of slaughtering the other teams, but yet appear much weaker.

It is usually one extreme or the other for Emmett & Jillian. Their high pressure and high energy tactics is both a blessing and a curse for them. Tonight, I think it’s going to be a curse.

With that being said, I love nothing more than to be wrong when it comes to my predictions, and will laugh my head off if Emmett & Jillian win despite the incredible stories of Steph & Kristen and Joel & Ashley.

And I love nothing more than to see the casual fans spark a nation-wide riot.

P.S. If you are not watching Australian Survivor, you should catch up now. This Canadian has absolutely loved it thus far. It ain’t too late to catch up on this masterpiece. Especially when Big Brother 18 is close to having an ultra shitty ending. #NicoreyArePredictableAndNotCompelling #JamesFrustratesMe

P.P.S. Yes, I know a reunion show with the hosts from The Social will be equally painful as James Duthie, but who doesn’t love a good cringeworthy trainwreck? Too bad Hal & Joanne aren’t there again to jumpstart the awkwardness early. It will be interesting to see if they know anything about TAR since Duthie relieved them of their duties for two seasons.

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