The Amazing Race Canada 4 Week 10 Predictions and Editing Analysis

Hey, it’s the penultimate week of TAR Canada! There is still time left for me to be wrong!



All season long the question has been “Can an all-female team beat the odds and finally win?”

However, the odds are already there when fifty percent of the teams this season are all-female duos.

The bigger underdog story will be if a mother-daughter combo can win The Amazing Race. Mother-daughter teams have a horrendous track record when it comes to the franchise.

The team who made it the furthest was Nancy & Emily, and they freakin’ quit. Yes, a team that quit fifteen years ago has had the best performance until Frankie & Amy came along.

We have learned a ton of personal information about Frankie & Amy in comparison to the other teams. The audience is emotionally invested in them. What do we know about Emmett & Jillian outside of winning Big Brother? That Emmett works on a farm?

All signs point to the status quo of TAR Canada’s past and present being overthrown this season. Frankie & Amy could very well be the ones who succeed in this coup d’etat.

Or they just get eliminated this week. That would be a bummer.


Or an upset that is nearly equivalent would be a father-daughter team winning TAR.

There are two major things working against them:

a) Joel is not having a sex change anytime soon.

b) Joel & Ashley have had a “fan favourite Final Four elimination” that has held up since day one. They have not waivered from this edit.

However, they certainly have much better odds of winning than Steph & Kristen or Emmett & Jillian. Things could be turned on its head if Frankie & Amy are ousted this week.

Besides, what storylines do they have left? Joel hasn’t had much of a story. We have seen how far Ashley has come a contestant. There isn’t really any unanswered questions left for the editors to answer.


Are they villains? Are they just edited as being super ultra competitive? Are they too competitive to be within that moral range for the audience to accept them as winners?

Survey says ‘likely not’ according to the edit. However, they are an all-female team, and all signs point to an all-female team winning this season.


Have you read my Funniest Complaints blog? If editors wanted fans to be interested in a redemption story for Jillian, they would have started this change in edit a long time ago.

Not, you know, the week before the finale. I doubt production would go out of their way to induce outrage from the audience.


1) STEPH & KRISTEN – 2.22 Average

I feel like Steph & Kristen and Emmett & Jillian should be in a dead heat when it comes to leg wins by the end of the penultimate round.

Besides, I see Steph & Kristen beating Emmett & Jillian at golf–even if Steph has to grip the club with her bloody finger.

Also, Emmett & Jillian will need to seek a new shoe for Shoeless Jill Jackson. That could cancel out their home region advantage.

Furthermore, I doubt Emmett & Jillian will be able to use their advantage considering the area they will be driving around will likely occur.

2) EMMETT & JILLIAN – 2.56 Average

See above.

Steph & Kristen and Emmett & Jillian have been in a league of their own so frequently that it is tough to picture Frankie & Amy or Joel & Ashley cracking top two this week.

But which team will go home?

3) FRANKIE & AMY – 4.22 Average

Frankie & Amy repeatedly hang on each leg by the tips of their fingernails. As we saw last week, the leading teams are desperate enough that they manipulated a Double U-Turn to ensure Frankie & Amy’s safety.

Could we see Emmett & Jillian or Steph & Kristen be bold enough to intentionally throw a Face-Off to Frankie & Amy to give them a headstart on Joel & Ashley for the rest of this leg? That would be a huge move to make.

It could also be a foolish move if Frankie & Amy can kick their asses in the final leg.

4) JOEL & ASHLEY – 3.67 Average

Joel typically does extremely well with his Roadblocks. This week? We will more than likely see Ashley volunteer herself as tribute.

Ashley has been the type to have the occasional meltdown or freakout along the race course.

I can’t imagine a situation where Ashley enters a Roadblock in the penultimate leg and not only be out of their comfort zone in terms of the task, but also know the whole outcome of the race is on the line.

There will be added pressure when Steph & Kristen and Emmett & Jillian want nothing more than to watch Joel & Ashley exit this leg. I am not sure if Ashley can thrive on that pressure in this environment.

Hopefully she proves me wrong, but this blog is not all puppies and unicorns. One day that could change, though.

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