The Amazing Race Canada 4 Week 9 Predictions and Editing Analysis

For those waiting for the past two Funniest Complaints blog, rest assured that I have compiled all of the complaints for both weeks, but haven’t had a chance to post them as of yet. I wanted to get TAR Australia’s series premiere rankings blog out of the way first.

Also, three goddamn episodes of Australian Survivor is a bizzle for this Canadian to keep up with each week. However, it’s time to focus on my homeland once more.

WEEK 9 EDITING ANALYSIS

1) FRANKIE & AMY

frankie amy

When they opened the first clue in the last episode: Damn. That’s a long personal story. They are doomed to be eliminated next.

When they arrived at the pit stop and did not finish last: Damn. Their odds of winning just skyrocketed.

Producers need to justify their winners at around the halfway point, and Frankie & Amy’s opening confessional from last round rang the alarm bells.

It seems too obvious, doesn’t it? The goofiest of the all-female teams triggers the biggest upset in four seasons by taking down the two Goliaths in the race, and how their relationship propels them to victory?

2) RITA & YVETTE

rita yvette

C’mon producers. Were you even trying to at least semi-convince us that Rita & Yvette could be eliminated last week?

I expect Rita & Yvette’s story to continue to grow this week. Whatever happens with this Double U-Turn and their bland Speed Bump will be used to explain their arc for this season.

I think I can commit to whether Rita & Yvette will win or not by the end of the episode. Their only active storyline at this time is to prove they are a threat. This would be the week to do so.

3) EMMETT & JILLIAN

emmett jillian

Jillian is slowly redeeming herself. There was a long pit stop discussion about how her being nicer led to them winning a leg for the first time since the Calgary round. This is the exact same episode when Dana started having her redemption edit in TAR 28.

Could we really be seeing the same storyling in consecutive international seasons? Possibly.

Otherwise, Emmett & Jillian’s story ends when they beat Steph & Kristen or Steph & Kristen beat them.

4) JOEL & ASHLEY

ashley joel

Ashley goes from being scared of everything and being a borderline control freak to becoming a more relaxed and cooperative racer.

Joel goes from being a quiet and reserved father figure into a badass dude who is coming into his own on television and wants to win very badly.

Is it just me, or is Joel & Ashley’s storyline complete? Not only do I think they will not win this season, but this seems like the correct week for them to go home. We have reached a dead end with them in the editing suite.

5) STEPH & KRISTEN

steph kristen

2001: Gay Grandpas are the original villains in the entire history of The Amazing Race.

2016: Lesbian softball players are villains in Canadian TAR.

It is strange to see the progression of LGBT villains in the TAR universe after fifteen years.

I should point out that labeling Steph & Kristen as villains is a very loose definition. This has been such a low key season that lying about a useless Express Pass is treated as Jonny Fairplay lying about his dead grandmother.

Unlike Emmett & Jillian, Steph & Kristen do not have that built-in audience pre-season which would root for them from start to finish. This gives Jillian’s antics to have more wiggle room and create a redemptive edit for herself.

Steph & Kristen do not have that same luxury. One hundred percent of the audience’s opinion of them is based on what they see here in TAR Canada. It is not like they can say “well, Jillian was much nicer in BB Canada and therefore I can still cheer for her”.

Therefore, Steph & Kristen really do not have a shot at winning this season, and the end of this season will revolve around their downfall rather than their success. I have been saying this for weeks.

I see them as lasting longer than Joel & Ashley, but their chances of winning based on the edit appear to be lower than theirs. Tragic.

WEEK 9 PREDICTIONS (THE ORDER OF ARRIVAL AT THE PIT STOP)

1) EMMETT & JILLIAN – 2.75 Team Average

The preview suggests it will be your typical physical round in Atlantic Canada for TARC.

Emmett & Jillian possess both the regional advantage and the necessary skills needed to dominate this leg. With a Double U-Turn up ahead, they can shove their strongest competitors back and have yet another one of their dominant leg wins.

Anything lower than second will be a huge upset for Emmett & Jillian this week.

2) RITA & YVETTE – 5.0 Team Average

Consider me crazy, but I see Rita & Yvette finishing second this leg. Why?

Because out of seven Speed Bumps in TAR Canada’s history, nobody has been eliminated when required to complete one. This is why I ignore any commentary when fans online say “omg a team won a leg despite completing a Speed Bump” or “they must’ve done such a good job to not be last!!!”

Sit down, fool.

With Emmett & Jillian and Steph & Kristen at each other’s throats, and Joel & Ashley being the scapegoat last time (welcome to the life of being a mistreated Canadian minority), Rita & Yvette may stay out of trouble this week.

They should have an easy path to stay alive this week. Are any of the other teams focusing on them at the moment?

3) STEPH & KRISTEN – 2.25 Team Average

Steph & Kristen are going to hate opening the clue at today’s pit start. Much like the VoldeMussolinis last season, they know it will be nothing short of a mad dash to get to the Double U-Turn board first. They could not be happier TAR Canada allows you to use an infinite number of U-Turns each season.

Steph may have sliced her hand, but her and Kristen will not hesitate to slice another team’s throat if it means entering the penultimate leg and increased odds to become the first all-female team to win TAR Canada.

Also, I imagine beating Emmett & Jillian by the end of the season is one of their primary goals.

I think Emmett & Jillian will get revenge this week, but much like the previous U-Turn, Steph & Kristen are going to be too dang strong and will finish in 3rd or 4th place anyway. Hell, maybe even second. They have been that strong.

4) FRANKIE & AMY – 4.375 Team Average

There will most likely be four teams implicated in the Double U-Turn this week. Based on the confessionals from the first Double U-Turn in Kingston, nobody is eager to take down Frankie & Amy.

Steph & Kristen wanted them in the Final Three, and Emmett & Jillian instantly U-Turned Joel & Ashley.

If this round did not involve any twists, Frankie & Amy would seem doomed. However, the Double U-Turn should be the lucky break they need to barely survive.

5) JOEL & ASHLEY – 3.625 Team Average

They were barely saved last week by Joel revealing he was a semi-professional volleyball player, and also having another mechanical Roadblock propel him and Ashley to the front of the leaderboard.

I doubt they will receive those same benefits this week. Given all of the tasks shown in the preview, it feels like this might be the natural point for Joel & Ashley to be eliminated.

Mainly because I expect the U-Turned team to screw them over back-to-back, and that will make all the difference to keep Frankie & Amy in the race.

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