The Amazing Race 28 Editing Analysis and Predictions Week Ten Edition

Despite entering the season as a common pre-season winner pick for many experts (including myself), the early blunders and a fizzling edit led to the inevitable elimination of Zach & Rachel. They played out CBS’ last attempt at reviving Pirate Master as they were cut adrift, and now we move on.

With another round in Bali on the horizon and a Double U-Turn that will actually air on TV, it is time to figure out how this season will end.

Week Ten Editing Analysis

Teams are ranked from who I think have the best shot of -winning- to who has the worst shot of winning.

Note that this is different from identifying a specific boot order.

1) Burnie & Ashley #MissedSolidSnakeReference

For now, they are the most likely team to win. Extraordinarily popular, works well with others, rarely edited to be shown as a weak team, and now they have a story of being on a quest for a first place finish.

However, they will not hold onto this position if they win either tonight’s leg or the following leg. That’s right. As soon as they claim victory, their most active storyline is over, and shall be doomed from entering the winner’s circle.

2) Sheri & Cole #SteveHarveyBlindsider

Am I just projecting what I want to happen or could Sheri & Cole be our first non-douchey parent-child team to win? We can only hope.

They came out of nowhere to go from beating only a combined total of two teams over the past eight rounds to beating THREE teams in a single leg. Considering two of those teams were duos they had never beaten before, that was a huge upset.

Sheri & Cole have built a strong foundation for their journey since day one. Let’s hope this journey ends with a victory.

P.S. I love that Sheri & Cole had their best round yet when they had to perform a Speed Bump compared to all other rounds where they didn’t have to complete any additional tasks. If that is not further proof of how pointless Speed Bumps have been over the past ten seasons or so in TAR US, I don’t know what is. I always cringe whenever I see somebody write “and they survived EVEN THOUGH they completed a Speed Bump!”

Sigh.

3) Tyler & Korey #TylerAndKorey

Remember when editors reminded us that Tyler has to do all of the remaining Roadblocks just like they did with Brodie a trillion times? Oh no? I guess it must not be a big deal then.

It is strange to see a contestant on The Amazing Race who is bigger than the show itself. Primarily because Tyler & Korey don’t even feel like they are part of the main story anymore–it’s just them trucking along providing commentary on everything that happens around them.

Essentially there are two separate reality shows being fused into one this season: The Amazing Race, and Tyler & Korey Running The Amazing Race. It is going to be interesting if the absence of the latter next season will be enough to retain the new audience who tuned in specifically for Tyler Oakley.

4) Kurt & Brodie #JustACoupleODudesWithAnExcessivelyLongHashtag

“Kurt has used up all of his Roadblocks. Brodie is terrible at Roadblocks.”
“Kurt has used up all of his Roadblocks. Brodie is terrible at Roadblocks.”
“Hey Brodie, why aren’t you guys using your Express Pass?”

Man, that was a repetitive edit during last week’s episode. We get it. Kurt & Brodie have made too many mistakes, and Brodie’s inability to perform at the past two Roadblocks has put them at a significant disadvantage heading into this round.

The past couple of months have been spent figuring out how Kurt & Brodie shall be overthrown, and everything is lining up for them to go home this week.

5) Dana & Matt #UnacknowledgedRedemption

Sorry Michael Harmstone, but there wasn’t one iota of projected redemption that occurred last week. A team that fluctuates between having meltdowns and invisibility may very well be one of the worst possible edits you could get as a contestant on a reality TV show.

I sound like a broken record at this point, but Dana & Matt have a zero percent chance of winning this season.

 

Week Ten Predictions

Note: This is my prediction for who will arrive on the mat from first to last place in this leg.

This is different from my pre-season projection of how the boot order will shape up for the duration of the season.

1) Dana & Matt – 3.56 Team Average

I believe Dana & Matt are overdue for another leg win. Unfortunately, whoever wins this round will not be the focus of the episode. I hope that if Dana & Matt do win this round, somebody will award them at least partial credit for it. . .or they’ll just go on a rant about how the race is unfair and how Dana is a horrible person.

One of those two things will happen.

2) Burnie & Ashley – 3.333333333333333 Team Average

When you have two rounds take place in the same city without an equalizer, it is tough to lose your lead. With a Double U-Turn coming up, the first team to actively scheme during this season will undoubtedly use it.

And, yeah, I think it is a foregone conclusion that they want nothing more than for Kurt & Brodie to go home. They have spent too much time talking about them over the past few rounds.

3) Sheri & Cole – 6.44 Team Average

There has been only one time where a parent-child team has been U-Turned, and it received a lot of backlash (so much so that the team who got U-Turned claimed it was “inappropriate” because of how old their dad was).

If Sheri & Cole get U-Turned, I have one plea: Please do not react like that other parent-child team did when they were U-Turned. Please please please don’t.

However, I highly doubt Sheri & Cole will be targeted this round. A team that has a 6.44 average by round ten have a tendency to be spared in situations like this. I guarantee you every team wants Sheri & Cole to advance to the final round.

And I s’pose they deserve a reprieve after eating goat testicles.

4) Tyler & Korey 2.67 Team Average

Should both U-Turn slots be used, I have a feeling Tyler & Korey may be the only other team that could see their faces on the board.

Furthermore, Tyler & Korey have become inconsistent and unpredictable with how they finish during the second half. The other teams have clearly been improving since the beginning when Tyler & Korey were leading the charge, but now these guys have to muster a lot more skill and speed to maintain a lead over everyone else.

I can see them choking a bit with their lead this week, but will not go home. After all, Tyler isn’t the one who keeps blowing these Roadblocks like Brodie.

The European legs this season were about Tyler & Korey’s rivalry with Kurt & Brodie. It could very well be that they have one final showdown to determine who goes home before the penultimate leg.

5) Kurt & Brodie – 2.33 Team Average

Just a couple o’ bros at the back of the pack who are the most socially acceptable team to be U-Turned within the context of the game, and have been having a helluva time with the race over the past two rounds!

Kurt & Brodie are going to have to defy the edit, the socially agreed upon target on their heads, a Brodie Roadblock, and an inevitable U-Turning to stay alive one more day.

Hopefully ultimate frisbee has taken Bali by storm. Hopefully Aussie college students who are on vacation have been picking up this sport over the past few years.

Oh, and it is no longer possible for them to break Eric & Jeremy’s record.

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