The Amazing Race 28 Editing Analysis and Predictions Week Five Edition

Ugh. Did you see the really stupid list CBS released last night? Jesus. Anyways, moving on.

Week Five Editing Analysis

Teams are ranked from who I think have the best shot of -winning- to who has the worst shot of winning.

Note that this is different from identifying a specific boot order.

1) Tyler & Korey – #TopOfTheFlagpole

tyler korey 2

The Winner’s Edit keeps building for Tyler & Korey. They were shown commenting on Blair & Brodie’s relationship as well as the suspense surrounding Jessica & Brittany not making the train.

In other words, they were viewed as the neutral observers that the audience is supposed to identify with throughout the season.

Considering they have been at the top or seconds behind it through all four rounds without any negativity like Josh & Tanner and Justin & Diana experienced last year, they are the clear frontrunners in this category.

2) Burnie & Ashley – #ClickerCarriers

burnie ashley

We were shown all of the moments when Burnie & Ashley were leading in the last episode, and hearing their logic when approaching some of the tasks.

Combine their significant edit during the season premiere including an amusing story, it is impossible to ignore the story unfolding before our eyes.

I would even be so bold as to be on the verge of ruling out the other six teams as possible winners. Tyler & Korey’s and Burnie & Ashley’s edits are that strong.

3) Kurt & Brodie – #NotNotShouting

kurt brodie

Brodie is in a relationship that received a lot of attention, but we did not really get to see it from his perspective as much as we could.

For an all-male Christian team, they aren’t as popular with the casual audience as they could be. However, it’s tough to ignore that less and less viewers have been complaining about them since the premiere.

In addition, there is no story yet that goes along the lines of “we need Kurt & Brodie out because they are too strong”. If that story was in play by now, I would doubt that Kurt & Brodie would make it to the end.

Look for Kurt & Brodie and Scott & Blair to make it deep into this season. The relationship only began in the last episode.

4) Sheri & Cole – #FIFAGeographyStudents

sheri cole

There is a glimmer of hope for Sheri & Cole to have a winner’s edit. Despite being Jessica & Brittany’s closest allies in the first three rounds, we did not see them receive any negative feedback from fans for Jessica & Brittany’s elimination last week.

It is somewhat important for a team to be shown having a relationship with some of the teams that get eliminated along the way. Very rarely will you see eventual winners who have a completely independent storyline all season long.

Also, Cole’s personal fact of playing FIFA video games are the types of random things we learn about our champions each season.

5) Zach & Rachel – #ThePoundingWobblyBladeKings

zach rachel

It was a cool down episode for Zach & Rachel after narrowly escaping death in round three. I cannot quite figure out what their story is supposed to be. They have made a lot of mistakes in the beginning. Does that mean it will be a journey of recovering from their errors and proving to be strong racers?

Or will they be one of those teams that goes home in seventh or eighth that nobody remembers?

Possibly the latter. Things ain’t looking good for my pre-season winner picks.

6) Erin & Joslyn – #InstagramShunners

erin joslyn

It was another swing and a miss for Erin & Joslyn during the fourth round of play. Cole saw them sitting on the benches. Did anything else happen to them last round? They are going to need to be at the centre of an episode soon.

7) Scott & Blair – #BlodieOrHandy

blair scott

After editors spent a helluva lot of time investing in the Blair and Brodie relationship, it would be odd for them to be eliminated this week.

However, this doesn’t change the fact that they are not receiving much of a winner’s edit. Brodie was getting more focus than Blair during these scenes, therefore the one shown with less agency is the one who will likely go first. . .or be viewed as the least significant when it comes to the overall story arc.

Oh, and as long as editors refuse to stop shoving in “Daddy! Daddy! Daddy!” as much as they can while the casual audience makes stupid remarks, it is impossible to see Scott & Blair as our winners.

8) Dana & Matt – #KasparovTrolls

dana matt

SHE RUINED A CHESS GAME! WHAT A JERK!!!!!!!!!!!!11111ONEONE.

Yeah, they have no chance with this edit. lol. They’ll go far, though.
Hell, could I be so bold as to say that Tyler & Korey, Burnie & Ashley, Dana & Matt, and either one of Scott & Blair or Kurt & Brodie.

Predictions for Week Five

Note: This is my prediction for who will arrive on the mat from first to last place in this leg.

This is different from my pre-season projection of how the boot order will shape up for the duration of the season.
1st: Tyler & Korey – 1.75 Team Average

There seems to be two coalitions at work:

1) The top four teams dividing into two pairs to stay at the top

2) The bottom four teams all helping each other out.

As long as this season continues with having the least amount of twists of any season since TAR 4, and nobody taking advantage of the few production twists presented, Tyler & Korey will be in excellent shape.

This is one of few cases in TAR history where a team can say they have a sub-2.00 team average after four rounds.

2nd: Kurt & Brodie – 2.25 Team Average

A round full of recreational sports? This is Kurt & Brodie’s lucky day.

3rd: Burnie & Ashley – 4.00 Team Average

Burnie & Ashley are well-rounded mentally and physically. I think hovering around the bronze position on the podium will become a familiar spot to them in the weeks to come. They might never win a leg, but they will probably never come in last either.

4th: Dana & Matt – 3.00 Team Average

Casual viewers will be disappointed when a production plant is not hired to collide with Dana’s paraglide in mid-air this week.

But seriously, if a team can function this well when bickering, just imagine how strong they would be if they were able to get along.

Unless they experience the Tian & Jaree Effect, of course.

5th: Zach & Rachel – 5.75 Team Average

Look at that jump in average from the top half compared to the bottom half.

Zach & Rachel have potential, but cannot quite seem to get in sync with the skills being tested so far this season.

I doubt they are at risk as this will likely be a very physical round. As long as Rachel is not in charge of counting Euros, they should be fine.

6th: Scott & Blair – 9.00 Team Average

Has a team made it to round five with a 9.00 average? I think Scott & Blair are very good at finding teams who are willing to help them. Knowing how poorly they have performed each round, many teams could be in the mindset of assisting them to ensure they have “easy competition” in the Final Three.

7th: Erin & Joslyn – 7.00 Team Average

What? I didn’t put Erin & Joslyn as the projected boot for the third week in a row?

Well, I think there is one major factor that will keep them alive for this round, but I will get to that in a minute.

One of the reasons why I have been putting Erin & Joslyn this low on a consistent basis has been because of an evolving storyline over the past couple of weeks. Whenever Erin & Joslyn work with another team since the second round, it seems like they are the ones who benefit the most from the coalition rather than the ones leading the way.

Other than the first twenty minutes of the season premiere, there hasn’t been any major moments to indicate that Erin & Joslyn could be top tier competitors within this cast. Perhaps it is time for a change.

8th: Sheri & Cole – 7.50 Team Average

Alabamans haven’t seen snow or much of the cold. Combine this with a 7.50 team average, and I have a feeling a round set entirely within the confines of the French alps in the middle of November could prove to be the end for Sheri & Cole.

It is one prediction I hope does not come true.

That does it for this week. By the way, have you seen CBS’ list for the “Top 25 Most Favourite Teams of All Time”? It’s terrible, and I intend to write a full response to it.

Thank you.

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3 Responses to The Amazing Race 28 Editing Analysis and Predictions Week Five Edition

  1. Hugo says:

    Yeah, I have no idea how CBS came up with that list. I mean, sure, there’s some teams that are popular in various parts of the fanbase (even if some are popular amongst some parts and hated in others…) but others I don’t get at all. Where are all the fans who loved Rachel & Dave and Nick & Starr? Not to mention that if Kenny & Tina were so popular, why didn’t they get asked for UB?

    I would love to see how CBS determined who to put on that list.

    P.S. LOL at E&J being eliminated right after you stopped predicting they would be.

    • With some of those articles they put out for Survivor and TAR on the CBS page, I presume it is just one random intern/employee who puts it together to help promote discussion.

      Yeah, it was weird seeing Rachel & Dave and Nick & Starr on this list. That whole ending to TAR 13 was “I hope Toni & Dallas can pull it off, but man we all are rooting for Dan & Andrew to come out of nowhere and win this thing.”

      And yeah, I know some of the TAR 28 contestants read my predictions, and are amused at Erin & Joslyn being eliminated right when I thought they would be saved. I was close though, and before the season started I did say that the all-female teams were all going home early.

    • Jordan says:

      I just thought those was teams listed in that gallery was the production’s favorite teams

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