The Amazing Race Canada 3 Week 5 Predictions and Editing Analysis

Well, last week proved I was right about how the Double U-Turn and Simi & Ope’s position would play out. However, I completely missed the ball when it came to Neil & Kristin’s performance last episode.

Oh well.

WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

1) Nick & Matt

I really want to see a team get third place in ten consecutive rounds.

However, this round doesn’t appear to play to any of their weaknesses. Granted we haven’t really seen any so far other than letting Dana question that poor Argentine Purse Lady (we missed the unaired waterboarding scene).

I will be stunned if they go home. Being well-rounded and well-liked are two crucial traits as we enter the halfway point of the season. Today will probably be their day.

2) Gino & Jesse/VoldeMussolinis

I doubt they will receive much backlash for U-Turning Brent & Sean; in fact I think it was implied amongst teams that Gino & Jesse and Brent & Sean would have to be the first team to be U-Turned without it being deemed controversial by the audience.

Unless an anti-VoldeMussolini brigade forms, Gino & Jesse appear to be safe for the week. After all they are back in familiar territory.

P.S. Alex, please ask Gino a Canadian geography question. We all know he’ll get it wrong. And if he does, can we replace Gino with Gino from Super Mario RPG?

3) DuJean & Leilani

I ranked each of the other seven teams before making my prediction for DuJean & Leilani this week.

It is doubtful since this is The Hate Machine’s holy ground for the past three weeks, but hey, I had to rank em somewhere and they sure as hell won’t be finishing in the bottom two this week.

4) Neil & Kristin

She has already ditched the wheelchair, and the crutches are going to be thrown out too.

Last time I checked, you can’t get hypothermia in a mine and thankfully the water Kristin will be exposed to this round is an indoor swimming pool.

I could be too generous with this placement though. Kristin only has hours to recover during the flight to “nearby” (as far as Canadian geography goes) Sudbury.

I wonder if Neil will be pissed that Trebek doesn’t think he is famous enough to have a Sports Jeopardy! answer with him as the question?

5) Brent & Sean

If they didn’t know what TSN was, general knowledge trivia questions involving Alex Trebek may not be their ideal situation. Plus they’ll probably hang onto their Express Pass when a swimming challenge enters the fray.

6) Brian & Cynthia

Cynthia is not a diver, but is she a swimmer?

7) Nic & Sabrina

There was an Olympic sized swimming pool in the preview for tonight’s episode.

8) Simi & Ope

See above.

WEEK 5 EDITING ANALYSIS

***BEST CHANCE***

DuJean & Leilani

I continue to stand by DuJean & Leilani as having a very three-dimensional edit.

Past teams who race on TAR that are exes tend to have a very over-the-top edit which rules them out as winners from the beginning.

However, DuJean & Leilani’s story is not just them bickering which is a huge difference.

a) Their only rough round was in Chile where the scene ended with “We need to work better as a team together”. This has been playing out as they have progressively gotten better and better.

b) Leilani’s family history was highly focused upon during the Halifax leg. This is an editing tool used for the audience to sympathize with Leilani and cheer for her.

c) Their arguments and DuJean dancing during tasks are presented in a comedic fashion.

d) Most importantly, other teams comment on DuJean & Leilani even during small moments.

Remember how Michael, Ben, and I at YATNcast said this was a huge tip-off Amy & Maya would win because an amusing confessional from Jim talking about them? Well, the same has happened for DuJean & Leilani. I believe it was Kristin at the tango task who said “DuJean & Leilani are dancers for crying out loud”.

In a season where nobody comments on you unless you are the physically threatening VoldeMussolinis or the force-a-fan-favourite-down-our-throats Brent & Sean, it certainly is worthy of our attention.

***PRETTY GOOD CHANCE***

Brian & Cynthia

They truly are at the centre of a lot of action during each leg of the race. Brian & Cynthia serenaded the elimination of their fellow officers, they talk about the other teams, and Cynthia led the first charge to make Hamilton look like a fool when it came to his Express Pass tactic.

Editors seem like they are really careful about making sure Brian & Cynthia deliver comedic moments that really stand out to the audience. We have also learned a lot of personal details about  this team (cops, no children, Brian’s military history and constantly bringing it up, Brian’s intimate detail when it comes to bulls, etc.)

There was also a lot of attention given to Brian & Cynthia and Gino & Jesse facing off for the entirety of this episode. I don’t think this rivalry is over folks.

Gino & Jesse/VoldeMussolinis

Have you noticed that a lot of clips which end right before a commercial break typically involve Gino & Jesse? I have.

Editors love telling us how they are the physical threats and Gino is a geography major. Whenever they screw up with taxis or Gino doesn’t know where Santigago is, either it is the taxi’s fault or Santigago’s fault despite the fact that they give their cab driver awful directions and Gino’s geography degree is from Colombia University.

They have a supercharged rivalry with Brent & Sean as well as a more friendly rivalry with Brian & Cynthia. These are two long-term storylines. Especially when you consider that their less-than-stellar finishes in some legs are usually ignored.

A surprising factor is how much their edit resonates with the audience. They are building a decent fan base.

Gino & Jesse will be around for a while and could possibly win based off the edit. That frightens me.

Brent & Sean

We knew when we read their bios on the CTV website that production really really really wants us to like them.

Small-town-heroes-turned-into-small-fish-in-big-pond-or-who-the-hell-cares type of edit which makes casual fans adore you.

I feel bad for Brent & Sean because they have nothing to do with fan favourite editing. Maybe even they are thinking “yeah guys, you don’t have to kiss our feet in every scene, you know”.

They were big characters in the season premiere, their conflict with Gino & Jesse is constantly pointed out, the scene with Hamilton & Michaelia’s Express Pass was supposed to be emotional, editors portrayed them as geniuses when they withheld their Express Pass despite being U-Turned, and editors love giving them either the quote of the episode or highlight them in each week’s preview.

However, I think this is just an edit to produce a fan favourite for the whole season. A team always needs to fill this role each year. We can’t rule out they could still win this thing as their edit does contain potential clues, though.

***SLIGHT CHANCE***

Nick & Matt

I doubt I will ever rank Nick & Matt too highly in terms of a winner’s edit because of how invisible they were during the season premiere.

Producers showed off their two brilliant moments by letting them help trailing teams with The Hop or working cooperatively to count photos in a library, but these guys just aren’t the favourites to win when it comes to editing.

Currently they have just one active storyline: Their addiction to being third on the podium. This ends the second they finish first on a leg of the race.

Where their story goes from there will be very important. It’s not a good sign when none of the other teams talk about them either.

***TINY CHANCE***

Nic & Sabrina

You know editors have not done their best to give a positive spin on Nic & Sabrina when the casual fans blame Nic & Sabrina for not being able to compete against ghosts at the Face Off or to make horses run around during the night at the Detour.

I stand by the fact that they will be major characters who will antagonize the audience until the Final Four, but I just can’t see them winning based on their edit.

Don’t worry, you guys are still my favourites and are super hilarious, but you just ain’t gonna win.

Neil & Kristin

If a racer can go from a wheelchair to the winner’s circle I will be truly amazed.

In all seriousness, Neil & Kristin have not found a new storyline since the one-episode story arc in Argentina. Sure, they got a lot of attention this week, but that’s because Kristin was taken to the hospital in a freakin’ ambulance.

Future racers take note: Hypothermia is your friend if you love receiving airtime.

P.S. Sorry about my inability to be optimistic about the edit of a father-daughter team. Ever since Hussein & Natasha in TAR Asia 4, I appear to have some sort of prejudice against every single one of them.

***NO CHANCE***

Simi & Ope

They got their first confessional in a LONG time at the start of last episode. In the words of Heidi Strobel, I knew instantly they would finish last.

I didn’t expect it to be a NEL round, but the deed has been done. Their airtime wasn’t very in-depth. It was the same story as it was during week one: Ope doesn’t like the water, and they may or may not be from Nigeria (Fun fact: My eldest brother trained with Daniel Igali during his freestyle wrestling days).

It is too bad because Simi & Ope have these subtle moments which make me laugh out loud, but when you have just twelve episodes to tell the story of the season some sacrifices are bound to be made.

A huge shift in the edit will be required for Simi & Ope to survive this round.

P.S. Don’t worry Ope. You still have the best picture in the history of Twitter.

***

Unfortunately my Ranking of the Recappers will be delayed until tonight, thus making me a full episode behind. I don’t really care though because they are just recappers.

You are probably familiar with my TAR Canada Funniest Complaints blog as well as my never-ending TARstorian rankings project (the bread and butter of this blog in terms of pop culture references and an episode count of 250+ at the moment), but did you know I also co-host a weekly TAR podcast?

Click here to listen.

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