The Amazing Race Canada 3 Week 4 Predictions and Editing Analysis

WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS

1) Nick & Matt

In a season where four unique teams have each won a leg after four rounds, it seems like it is Nick & Matt’s turn to claim victory.

They rallied the troops with The Hop to get everybody out of the bottom in Argentina, and in Halifax they rescued everyone once more by dividing up the numbers in the Halifax Library.

There is no way these guys can be U-Turned as they have helped out pretty much every team left in the race, and they possess the best Average Finishing Position stat of all remaining teams.

This is a prime week for them to win.

2) DuJean & Leilani

I never ranked DuJean & Leilani as high as I wanted to in previous weeks because Leilani requiring prescription inhalers was a concern for me.

However, she put up with a physical Detour in Halifax, and thus I feel it is not as severe as I thought it could be.

These two are competitive, and until a significant weakness presents itself, I do not see this team going anywhere next week.

Plus they’ll be spared by a Double U-Turn which is kinda important this round.

3) Neil & Kristin

“What? Not at the bottom?”

After the VoldeMussolinis, I believe Neil & Kristin are the second most physically fit team left in the race.

They are the only team this season who has yet to commit a big blunder. We have not entered the second half of an episode and think “man, Neil & Kristin are in danger this week”.

I think this is a team that wants to win very very badly.

4) Brent & Sean

Editors love treating the Express Pass as being relevant, but really it adds nothing to the race except brainwash viewers into blaming it for any success/bad karma down the road.

These two have finished in the middle of the pack in every single round thus far. Why should that change anytime soon?

5) Brian & Cynthia

The human yo-yos. Will they do well? Will they do poorly?

What’s their name? What’s their sign? What their interests are? Who they be with?

Sorry, I was out at a birthday party earlier tonight and was drinking.

I hate the term Beast Mode, but if I had to describe Brian accurately, I would refer to him as Manitoba Mode. He does pretty freakin’ well at no matter the type of task thrown in front of him.

On the other hand, you have Cynthia who helps catapult them to the front of the leaderboard when it comes to unintentional comedy. I can’t wait for the Double U-Turn with Cynthia.

SIMI: Hey Cynthia, please don’t U-Turn us if you could–

CYNTHIA:F–k you. We’ve been U-Turned here waaaay longer than you have bud. So shut the hell up. Oh, and James Duthie, your mother just called and told you she never loved you.

(JAMES goes into a corner and sheds a tear.)

There seems to be a lack of mental tasks this week and they are working with animals. . .so perhaps the Praire team will have an advantage in the latter and stay middle of the road this week?

6) Nic & Sabrina

Good news: They will be in a French-speaking area.

Bad news: They will be on islands surrounded by water.

7) VoldeMussolinis

During a round on an island, physical tasks are usually everywhere.

However, there is a Double U-Turn up ahead and I think several teams will be eager to U-Turn Gino & Jesse.

a) Teams know they can U-Turn them without receiving any sort of backlash. They aren’t a father-daughter duo or aren’t missing arms that were taken away by a shark attack.

b) All of the other equally physically fit teams were eliminated in each of the first four rounds. Crazy.

c) They haven’t been shown to have any close bonds with the other teams.

If it were just a regular U-Turn, they would be saved. Unfortunately they will have room to U-Turn Simi & Ope.

Unless the leading teams remember the tactic used in TAR 21.

8) Simi & Ope

I can already picture how the W-Turn/Double U-Turn will go down.

Brent & Sean finish the Double Battle/Team Battle/Faceoff first and make their way through the leg to the W-Turn board. They immediately put up the VoldeMussolinis’ picture.

The VoldeMussolinis are surprised and struggle to provide anything beyond a vague description of what just happened. They need to U-Turn somebody they know are behind them, and sell out Simi & Ope.

Simi & Ope, in a round where much of it takes on the water to Ope’s chagrin, will not be able to overtake The VoldeMussolinis and will be eliminated.

If Hamilton & Michaelia were still around, Simi & Ope may have not been U-Turned at all.

Double U-Turn Usage:

Brent & Sean U-Turn VoldeMussolinis

Everyone else is just too nice. If Brent & Sean do not U-Turn the VoldeMussolinis, somebody else will. They are pretty much the only team you can U-Turn without receiving backlash.

Gino & Jesse U-Turn Simi & Ope

Because the VoldeMussolinis aren’t suicidal.

No Non-Elimination Leg Yet

There is only two NELs to spread between the eleven rounds leading up to the finale. In a season that started with 12 teams in a short one hour episode, wouldn’t it be too early to use a NEL? Viewers are barely keeping track of the eight teams remaining in this expanded cast.

It would be excessive to have a Double Battle/Face-Off, a Double U-Turn, and a NEL all in the same week.

WEEK 4 EDITING ANALYSIS

***STRONG CHANCE***

Gino & Jesse

Why was the VoldeMussolini’s plea for the Express Pass to Hamilton & Michaelia shown when it proved to be irrelevant?

Why did producers cover up Jesse’s horrible performance at the Halifax Roadblock by blaming it on bad luck with their taxi driver?

Why are we told every single episode “we’ve got physical strength, therefore we will survive”.

They are receiving a rather favourable edit with in-depth story, and that worries me tremendously.

Brent & Sean

They shared a very positive moment with Hamilton & Michaelia this week which I thought was relevant.

However, many viewers forgot this season as the Funniest Complaints blog features multiple commentators who asked what happened to Hamilton & Michaelia’s Express Pass.

For the third time in five episodes, Brent & Sean’s quote of the episode is emphasized in the press release.

Furthermore, they have a clear rivalry with The VoldeMussolinis. 

“There is room for only one pair of brothers on this race.”

“They are our body double.”

And of course, The VoldeMussolinis tried to steal the Express Pass away from them with the fifty dollar pitch.

Clearly, Brent & Sean will be U-Turning The VoldeMussolinis. 

The question is this: Will it be enough to put Gino & Jesse out of the race, or will it be the template that the producers use to reinforce Brent & Sean’s winner’s edit for the remainder of the season?

I’ll have a much more definitive answer for these guys by the end of episode five.

DuJean & Leilani

We learned some very personal information about Lelani to gain sympathy with an audience that was initially cold to her in the beginning. This is called a dynamic edit.

They also had a multi-episode story arc of learning how to work together as a team.

For now, they have a very good well-rounded edit. With no active plot point for them as of right now, they will need a new one soon if you want to consider them to be contenders.

***A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE ***

Brian & Cynthia

Producers want us to pay a lot of attention to them. They keep bouncing around in the standings, and currently have had direct interactions with two of the four eliminated teams.

The team who is shown having relationships with the highest number of teams must always be considered to be a potential winner. After all, a winner’s edit is pretty lame if they do not get airtime talking with the other teams.

Lastly, the audience remembers them. That counts.

Neil & Kristin

No new story this week, but they did have a funny scene during the Detour. This might be the quick break they need before finding a new tale to tell.

.

.

.

Or maybe it just means we will be losing both father-daughter teams sooner rather than later.

P.S. It does indeed look like Hamilton & Michaelia taunting everyone with the Express Pass in round three was a one episode long storyline for Kristin. They will be dropping down this list soon if nothing changes.

***VERY SMALL CHANCE***

Nick & Matt

I think it is safe to say they are the official comedic relief for this season.

They aren’t apart of any dramatic events during the season, but production loves pointing out their funny little family-friendly moments (that don’t involve Cynthia). 

It’s pretty much impossible to dislike them.

Is that really a winner’s edit, though? No, it is not. They need a bit more substance to jump from Natalie/Meaghan and Jet/Dave territory to a winner’s territory.

Things must pick up soon.

Nic & Sabrina

The edit has brainwashed the casual audience into hating them as much as possible. It has become so extreme that people wanted them ejected from the race or that the previous round should have been a NEL.

I think the amount of focus Nic & Sabrina have on them ensures they will be one of the last four or five teams standing, but it also ensures they have pretty much no chance of winning.

The audience has to start respecting them this week for them to be remotely considered contenders.

***NO CHANCE***

Simi & Ope

I may have been wrong about Dana & Amanda receiving the smallest edit this season.

Have they even received a confessional in the past two episodes? Simi & Ope do not have a single active storyline.

Outside of The Guidos heading into the twelfth episode of TAR 1 or similar situations like that, I feel very confident Simi & Ope will be the next team out.

They have received significantly less airtime compared to every other freakin’ team remaining. That ain’t good.

If they get a confessional at the start of the episode, I would take this as confirmation that they will be eliminated just 45 minutes later.

Apologies for the brief predictions this week. Check back tomorrow morning for my Ranking of the Recappers weekly post.

Oh, and if you love hearing me talk about The Amazing Race for about forty weeks of the year, listen to the podcast I do with YATNcast. Thanks.

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One Response to The Amazing Race Canada 3 Week 4 Predictions and Editing Analysis

  1. This was a fun and informative read. Thanks!

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