The Amazing Race Canada 3 Week 1 Predictions and Editing Analysis

I mainly do this exclusively through Facebook posts, but thought it would be great to have a hard copy of it here for archiving purposes.

Sorry guys. No screencaps for this post. :/

PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 2 BASED OFF OF THE TWO MINUTES I SAW OF EACH TEAM IN THE PREMIERE

1) Gino & Jesse / VoldeMussolinis.

My pre-season assessment that they will possess few weaknesses during the race was confirmed when we saw these guys win the opening leg despite a major equalizer.

I mean, the VoldeMussolinis are still horrible people, but we have to acknowledge it will take a significant blunder for them to be eliminated early.

Although Gino may not have the greatest work ethic because his occupation is that he works for the city. At least Jesse is a steel worker.
2) Nic & Sabrina

Due to last leg’s equalizer and multiple tasks with very little margin to screw up or lose time, Nic & Sabrina’s 2nd place position came solely because of Nic’s broadcasting skills.

This is my favourite team remaining in the race, and with four languages under their belt, the advantage in Chile will be pretty damn big.
3) Susan & Sharnjit.

I will sound like a broken record by saying “this team’s finish in the last leg was just because of the TSN task”, but Susan & Sharnjit would have done much better if not for Susan having to suffer under the terror of attention seeker James Duthie.

They should do much better this week unless Duthie chases them into Chilean borders.

4) Hamilton & Michaelia.

I have said they are the clones of Nick & Starr, and the team with the lowest combined age in TAR history has yet to provide any evidence against this fact.

5) Nick & Matt.

Ummmm. . .this is based off of. . . .uh. . .okay, I am going off of past performances of pro wrestlers in TAR. Just throw em in the middle and they are safe.

Unless there is a task of “Do Your Best M. Bison Impression”, this is where they will be.
6) Neil & Kristin.

If they finish any higher or lower, we will have to suffer through Neil being like Uncle Rico and have to hear about his football days.

I fear for what happens when they get too much airtime. When Neil spoke in the premiere all we heard about was him talking about having a TV show which discusses football.

No thank you, sir.

7) Simi & Ope.

Simi & Ope so far are like Hussein & Natasha but ten times better. I expect them to not have any big meltdowns which is really all you need when eleven freakin’ teams still remain.

8) Dana & Amanda.

I liked Dana’s hat during the TSN Roadblock. The team from Newfoundland is as invisible on the show as the province is to the rest of Canada.

9) Brian & Cynthia.

Michael, Michelle, and Eamon of YATNcast all guessed Brian & Cynthia would be the first team eliminated. I had them pegged as going home in 8th.

Therefore, I think the emotionless team of this season will get by for another week.

10) Brent & Sean.

An easy way to create sympathy for the viewers and skyrocket Brent & Sean’s popularity is they barely escape elimination early in the race.

This team is expected to clash. Particularly when Sean is doing this race on an emptied stomach.
11) DuJean & Leilani.

Leilani’s asthma has not played into the competition, but running around Chile could very well trigger it.

Combine it with the fact these two are exes who are prone to fighting and you have a team that can finish dead last in eleventh place. It’s all about making that dumb mistake when you have a lot of teams left in the race.

***

WINNER’S EDITS

Yes, they do exist. Producers for TAR, Survivor, and other countless reality shows are required to have winner’s edits. Since Survivor: Amazon and TAR 6, creating a winner’s edit is essentially to the long term success of any show.

Why? Because fans get super pissed if they do not respect a winner’s victory. In an age where ratings are becoming increasingly rare to come by, keeping the audience happy even with manipulative editing is key.

I have been studying winner’s edits for five years and let’s just say I really haven’t had anything thrown at me that suggests I was off base in my analysis.

Because of this, I thought I would discuss editing as a way to figure out who the winner will be.

There are three essentials you need to know about analyzing footage:

1) The winners will have random scenes during the race that will have nothing to do with what is going on in the leg. If you see a clip such as a team playing with a deck of cards for a minute, one must wonder “why are editors using their 40 minutes to show us this? Is this making us like them and respect them more? Are we supposed to pay attention to them?”

2) They will narrate what is going on around them as if they are objective narrators. This is critical in TAR. If the audience sees things from their perspective, it is likely that editors are using this as a tool to ensure we approve of the winner’s victory.

3) Other teams make amusing observations about another team. Using fan favourite teams or villains to put the future winning team into the spotlight is another great technique which editors use.

Okay, there’s a fourth essential:

4) The winners must always have an active storyline. As soon as a team’s story ends (such as Chippendales winning the leg 11 prize for the one guy’s disabled dad), they no longer have a chance at winning the race. Regardless if they were being framed with a winner’s edit for every episode leading up to that point.

I have ranked the teams into three categories. Those who have a strong chance, those who have a good chance, and those who are already dead.

***THOSE WHO HAVE A STRONG CHANCE***

Gino & Jesse a.k.a. VoldeMussolinis – Toneless, but they have had specific scenes. They received a good edit for an alpha male team. Sticking around for a while. I could see them being victims of a simple finale blunder e.g. Jody & Cory.

Simi & Ope – Probably the centre of the narrative for this round. Despite how they are on paper, they have an active storyline which counts. Furthermore, they had a long intro.

I never thought a father-daughter team would be viewed as a strong contender with a winner’s edit.

Brent & Sean – Producers are choosing them to carry the season on their backs. They want us to remember these two contestants. A cool down period is in order or we may have already identified our 4th place finishers. I think the viewers will gobble up the whole “small town Maritime boys who belong in the big city” edit. That whole bit of not knowing what TSN was nearly overemphazised.

But if they were to win. . .isn’t this how you would edit them in the premiere, anyway?

I need more information.

Hamilton & Michaelia – On a scale of 1 to Bethany Hamilton, how inspiring are they? If it’s just a one-note song of inspiration, they may end up being nothing more than a spot in the record books.

Their intro certainly made them noticed by the audience. However, they will need more footage soon for me not to drop them below.

Michaelia is receiving a positive edit thanks to producers not airing her love of Tyler Perry. She would instantly become the least popular contestant if they showed us that.

Brian & Cynthia – Brian’s stiff speech and Cynthia falling was amusing for their entire thirty seconds on screen. In the cast preview, this is all I expected to be maximum potential for these two.

I put them higher simply because there was the additional scene of James Duthie making fun of Brian’s collar. It was unnecessary in the grand scheme of things, but yet was included in the episode anyway.

***THOSE WHO HAVE A WEAK CHANCE***

DuJean & Leilani – Yay! The preview indicates this likeable team will finally deliver. Too bad they were not the centre of attention in the premiere. I doubt they go far because of this lack of attention. Exes on the race are usually a magnet for airtime during the first episode.

Neil & Kristen – Emotional fan favourite overload. Clearly we are supposed to sympathize with them, but it’s not working. They may have diehard fans, but I don’t think the edit was trying hard enough to convert those who are biased against them for being semi-celebrities.

Susan & Sharnjit – For a team that was nearly eliminated, their storyline was minimal. If they were to win, there should have been an “oh my god how did they survive” scene. The race isn’t meant to be from their perspective.

Nic & Sabrina – Wow. Probably the runner-ups judging by how much airtime they soaked up this round. Much like Brent & Sean, we are meant to pay attention to them. Easily my favourite team thus far. These two are savvy in interviews and have a great sense of humour. I will be biased when I speak about them.

***DEAD ALREADY***

Nick & Matt – Not winning. Really short intro and irrelevant this round except for the awkward incident with Cynthia.

Dana & Amanda – First Canadian female team to win? May pull a Ryan & Rob by making it far with a string of near-bottom finishes which keeps them away from interacting with other teams, but nah, they ain’t winning. They had the smallest edit of anyone this week.

James Duthie – Thank god his attention seeking in the premiere is over. We get it. You like TAR. This doesn’t mean you get to make every reunion show about you or stretching your boundaries by inserting yourself into random tasks. No. One. Cares.
Malias – ;_;

My pre-season prediction was that they would be competing with Sukhi & Jinder, Tim & Marie, and Kym & Alli as some of our top characters in recent TAR memory.

Sadly they did not survive long enough will to be able to confirm that I was right once more.

***

If you like this post, check out either my TARstorian blogs, my weekly Funniest Complaints About Amazing Race Canada 3 posts, or the weekly podcast I do each week for YATNcast.

The blog posts are all on this site, but you can check out the podcast by clicking here.

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