SCWL 2 episode 11

Challenge XI: Extrapolate

Inspired By: Pearl Islands’ day 30 immunity challenge.

Date: March 8 – March 11

Winner: It was Brian but then I noticed it was Lister.

Voted Out: Brian W. (6-2 vote)

ROUND ELEVEN
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IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
It was inspired by the infamous challenge where Probst didn’t know how to spell liaison. If a challenge suggested by a thirteen year old can be played on an island then how in the world can it not be adapted for online usage? I chose a few extra letters compared to the one we saw on the show because I didn’t want too few names to be available. I also wanted to avoid having too many names out there. I think I hit the right number.
OOC ON CRUISE CONTROL
They didn’t care about winning immunity. When five people from the same core alliance send in identical lists it’s safe to say they just want the “Thank You for Participating” ribbon like you receive in a grade school’s Sports Day*
*Varies where you were raised. Where I come from there was an annual school-wide day of athletics in June where we rotate between sixteen stations to play sports.
BRIAN WINS IMMUNITY!….?????
When I saw everyone’s lists I was stoked to see Brian win immunity. It’s clear he’s fan favourite right now. I’ll admit he’s been one of my favourites to watch all season. I counted up the names and was stoked that he’d be safe one more round and be in a potential spot to Daughtery his way to the end. But this immunity challenge penalty was brought to you by the letter ‘M’. I reluctantly acknowledged Brian screwed up and that he was a Brandon Bellinger short of tying with Lister and both having immunity.
Imagine that. Lister and Brian tied for immunity. Ooc would be forced to fracture. Well, not really. Lister and Brian would try to round up Marcelo and one other person to oust Michael. But Marcelo wouldn’t listen and it’d be a 5-2-1 vote with Marcelo eliminated. We’ll never know but given how much on the outside Marcelo is in a group that he is supposedly  aligned with I’d say Marcelo would’ve been gone.
WHY MIKE?
I need to give credit to Apus. When blindsiding David and Jamie didn’t work, they move onto Marcelo. When that doesn’t work too they moved onto Dave. When THAT didn’t work they moved onto Michael. Everyone on Ooc has now officially received votes. Noah can receive more votes if Apus targets him next round to complete the rotation, but why get rid of the jury goat? Noah is here to stay. Even Apus wants to take a shot at the easy win.
LISTER QUIETLY WINS IMMUNITY
I think Lister has more planned then he’s revealing. Ever since Eamon’s dismissal your sole goal should be to emotionally manipulate someone from the other side. If you can keep yourself in for three to four rounds it should work. Or do the opposite: Openly paint one of their own as evil for three to four rounds and get the player so angry that they vote them out of emotion.
It’s proven that the opposition to science is emotion. I hope Lister’s ORG experience has given him this information. Some people view it as the most despicable tactic in ORGs, but hey, if you want to win from the minority then don’t be afraid to pull out this card.
MIKE IS VULNERABLE
I think Michael might get paranoid from receiving votes. He hasn’t been up for elimination at any point in this game until now. Could he get all Ted Rogers Jr. and ultimately knock himself out of this game from all the paranoia? It’s possible. This is his first ORG. If he has a tough shell and shrugs off the two votes from the ailing minority, he can continue being the frontrunner to finish in the top three of the season. But if he starts annoying his tribemates whose names aren’t Noah, then he could see a surprise dismissal in fifth or sixth place. Particularly if Lister wins immunity next round.
BRIAN GOES
One of the stars for this season. He put up a fight but a botched idol puts him out earlier than a lot of people expected him to go post-merge. Oh well. Next time he needs to work on creating stronger bonds with the opposing tribe if he sees a merge in the minority on the horizon. It’s tough to pull off when it’s your first ORG because no one knows what to make of you and doesn’t have any history to base what your intentions of talking to the other tribe might be.  You can’t claim “oh, we’ve played games together so it’d be weird to not talk,” because newbies don’t have that luxury.
WILL OOC BREAK?
Will we see something rare happen in the recent Survivor universe and witness a core alliance eliminate one of their own prematurely? Can Jamie, the last previous winner standing, outplay a bunch o’ losers and first-timers? Stay tuned.
MARCELO
He has sat out of two post-merge challenges. I wonder if he can win if he makes it to the end for doing so freakin’ little? It’s a great strategy for him because he’ll be labeled as the “He is such a non-threat that we need to take care of Dave/David/Jamie who are all capable of immunity runs and make us all lose”. Will Marcelo’s long-term strategy pay off?
And note I didn’t say anything about Lister surviving a few rounds in that post. His only claim to safety is if he wins immunity again. And again. And again. And again. And again.

7: Lister
6: Marcelo
5: Dave
4: Jamie
3: Michael
2: Noah
1: David
MAJOR TWIST NEXT ROUND
Biggest twist the series may ever have. Could change how the rest of the game is played out.

(BRIAN)-(DAVE)-(DAVID)-(JAMIE)-(*LISTER*)-(MARCELO)-(MICHAEL)-(NOAH)
XXX
(WESLEY)-(KEVIN)-(FEDE)-(FRANCISCO)-(CHRIS)-(KRISTINE)-(CARL)-(EAMON)-(SHYAM)-(LEIF)

You MUST answer your questions for your vote to count. Unless you’re Jamie who I thought didn’t leave for her vacation until tomorrow. It will be the first and only exception anyone will ever have from answering TC questions.

Before we get into the questions, I do have an announcement to make.

Weeks before this game even began Jamie told me she’d be on vacation from the 11th to the 17th/18th and would be willing to withdraw her application if that was too big of a chunk of time. I got back to her a couple days later and said that would be fine. The only information I gave her is that something was planned. She asked for more details but I refused to give them to her to ensure the game would remain fair.

So next round I will say that you simply won’t have from the 11th to the 17th/18th completely off. There is something I have planned that will be considered a minor twist for the game. It was intended to take place with seven people left. So if you’re wondering why I made random delays from time to time, it’s because I needed exactly seven people for my minor twist to be effective. And even if Jamie is voted out this round, the twist will take place regardless.

Jamie also had the option to pre-vote because I was a few hours too late posting the immunity challenge results. This will also hopefully be the first and last time such an arrangement has to be made.

BRIAN,

1) So close to winning immunity. What happened there?

I looked at the message and I only saw one B instead of the two that there are, so I missed BB, Debb, etc. And I rushed a little since I had some other things to attend to, so I accidentally let a wrong answers slip by. If only you got +5 for numbering your entries…

2) What are the chances your survive tonight? Every Apus member has been voted out nearly every round, and Lister has immunity.

Infinitesimal…Once Shyam wouldn’t flip to me my game was over…no one wants to take me to the end, and almost no one needs me to get to the end. And even if Marcelo is sandbagging I’m a frickin’ Ph.D. mathematician…yeah I’m so gone…I’m sad it appears I’ll miss the twist.

DAVE.

1) Are the Ooc members so comfortable that it’s no big deal if an Apus wins immunity? What’s the thinking behind that?

No, it’s always important to us who wins immunity. For this round, we decided to all share information in an attempt to block anybody else from winning. Unfortunately our plan didn’t work out and both Brian and Lister got more names than us. I think it shows that these two are both excellent challenge competitors that they were able to individually defeat out our whole tribe.

2) How will this round’s vote impact the game?

Every vote is incredibly important to me, even when they are based on tribal lines. At a certain point, it will come down to one person left vs the Ooc alliance and we don’t want that person to be in a position to decimate our tribe by simply winning challenges.

DAVID,

1) What are the chances of an Ooc member being voted out this round?

Well I certainly hope the chances are 0%. In my opinion it would be crazy for one of our alliance to flip with 3 Apus members still left and waiting to pounce at any opportunity to split us up. We’ve made a pact and there’s no reason to break it, and knowing what I know about my alliance, everyone is solid.

2) What are the conditions under which you’d vote out somebody from Ooc?

If it’s down to the Final Five. In the event that someone flips from us to go to Apus though, they would be more than fair game; they’d be a target. But like I stated in the previous question i’m 100% sure that won’t be an issue.

LISTER,

1) Immunity must feel real good this round. Is there anything you can do with it or is it just “Thank god I’m safe for this round because I’m in a real bad spot”?

Well I know my first thought was definitely “Thank god I’m safe.” Beyond that we have OOC, 2 APUS and then Marcelo who has been a part of both tribes. There isn’t much I can do with it if those 5 who have stayed OOC from the beginning aren’t going to break apart. At some point though they will have to break. I would assume there is a sub-alliance in that group that will take out the others once it’s just them. If those individuals were to realize they were at the bottom of their five then there is a chance that something could be done here but as of this moment all I’m hearing is crickets chirping in the breeze.

2) Let’s say another Apus member goes this round. What options do you have to rebound in this game?

Win Immunity. That’s my option. I’m pretty damn sure if I don’t win the next Immunity I will be voted out. That’s my best option is to make myself immune. It’s the only guaranteed way to survive. Perhaps something else will pop up at that point but the way I see things in the here and now, immunity is what I need.

MARCELO,

1) You submitted one name while the next closest submitted 51 names. Will there come a time when you’ll participate in an immunity challenge?

IDK. lol. I knew that everyone would be awesome in this challenge. I know that I am horrible in challenges. haha. I took 30 minutes for one name! 51 names is a lot

2) Where do you stand in this game?

IDK
sorry logan, lol
MICHAEL,

1) Is there any conflict that has gone down at camp over the past few rounds?

Not really, just some Apus attempts at getting an OOC to change their vote.

2) Two idols have been played. There’s one idol that has whereabouts unknown. Where do you think the Apus idol is?

if one of them had an idol, they would have played it by now I think, or revealed that information to a chosen OOC’er in an attempt to have them switch a vote. No APUS member has told me they have an idol, so my best guess is someone was voted out with the APUS idol

NOAH,

1) You announced you found an idol several rounds ago and lo and behold, you do indeed play it last round. Why did you play it? And just like Brian, why did you play it when you didn’t receive a single vote?

I played it simply bc I knew most people knew I had the idol. And honestly I knew that it was something that could have made me a target and I’m not going out of this game with an idol and honestly I have plenty of faith in these people. I think idols are nice but they really throw a wrench into plans sometimes.

2) Are there people in this game who you know have a zero percent chance of winning even if they make it to the final round?

I think everyone has a shot at winning. We all are tough players and we all deserve a shot to win, but even though there is still 2 tribes, it never easy voting someone out.

Alright, when you vote please do so in the following format:

(LOGAN)

You’re letting Jamie get a bye from answering her questions AND waiting until TC is posted to cast a vote? Shame on you sir, shame on you.

Lister has immunity. You cannot vote for Lister. Everybody else is fair game. It is time to vote. Wacky tribe, you’re up.

MICHAEL: Awesome. Now we wait for a revelation

If anybody has a hidden immunity idol, and they played it this round, now would be the time I’d reveal it.
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Okay. Once the votes are read the decision is final and the person voted out will be removed from the group almost immediately. I’ll read the votes.
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FIRST VOTE:
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(Brian)
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SECOND VOTE:
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(Brian :()
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THIRD VOTE:
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(Professor Whitehead)
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That is three votes Brian.
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NEXT VOTE:
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(BRIAN!!)
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Four votes Brian.
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FIFTH VOTE:
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(MIKE)
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Four votes Brian, one vote Michael.
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SIXTH VOTE:
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[Michael]
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Four votes Brian, two votes Michael.
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NEXT VOTE:
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Eleventh person voted out of this game and the fourth member of our jury:
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(Brian)
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Brian, the tribe has spoken.
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(XXXXX)
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It’s time for you to go.
NOAH: What r the x’s for?
LOGAN: Their torch being snuffed. It’s tradition from the very first TC of the very first game. 🙂
NOAH: Oh I thought it was how many votes they got.
BRIAN: Well, from my answers you know that I was expecting this…good luck all of you, and I look forward to grilling 2 of you in the jury and maybe playing again with some of you down the road.
DAVID: Good game Brian; i’m pretty sure if the numbers had stacked up differently you would have completely owned this game..
MICHAEL: Agreed, you were great in challenges, tribe life, strategy, everything. you could have won this for sure. hats off to you
DAVE: Good game Professor Whitehead! If only you’d started on Ooc things could have been different. If I make it to final 2, I look forward to your grilling! 😀
NOAH: Brian 😦 you were a great guy and very classy. Had you been with OOC since the beginning then you would def still be around. Stay classy 🙂
Brian put up a great fight as he went out the door this round. I hope all of you scramble just as hard to stay in this game when the chips are down.

Now we move into the endgame phase. Survivor experts and players claim an unexplainable and heightened strategic atmosphere takes hold at this point. The game starts to wear you out. Well, in a few minutes, all seven of you will have your Survivor savvy put to the test. See you then.

TC VOTING
BRIAN,
(MIKE)

Reason: Michael is my middle name. Yeah, I’m mailing it in…

DAVE,
(Professor Whitehead)

Brian, I’m voting for you for pretty obvious reasons by now. I thoroughly enjoyed playing with you and if you hadn’t gotten the short end of the stick landing on Apus instead of Ooc, you could have easily won the game I think. You gave us quite a run for our money at the challenge, you nearly saved yourself! If only you and Lister had worked together you could have tied for immunity and we would have been forced to vote out Marcelo. Well, your time has come. Farewell Mr. Math!

DAVID,
I vote for:

(Brian)

Reason: A huge challenge threat and definitely smart enough to sway someone on the bottom of the totem pole. Also, everyone’s mindset always changes in Survivor at final 7, and I don’t a smart competitor like you around to slip through when this game gets flipped on it’s head.

JAMIE,
I would like to vote for Brian if I can in this TC. If he wins immunity, then I’d like to vote for Lister.
LISTER,
[Michael]
“You won’t be going home tonight I’m fairly certain but I made a promise to Brian that even though things look bleak I would not vote for him.]
MARCELO,
BRIAN!!
MICHAEL,
(Brian)

You’re a great guy, fun to talk to, smart, great in challenges. Unfortunately these are all reasons why you need to go. I’ve loved playing the game with you, and I respect everything you’ve done, especially how you tried to survive, instead of rolling over in defeat. You fought the good fight. I hope we play another game together and we wind up together

NOAH,
BRIAN 😦
CONFESSIONALS
MARCELO,
  • SIT OUT

  • 1-ROB CESTERNINO

  • *SIT OUT

 

BRIAN EXIT INTERVIEW

If you’re reading this, it means you were recently voted out and disappointed because of it. Why not answer these questions while you haven’t quite got over this mess?

1) Let me ask: Did you know ANYONE at the start of the game? I was under the impression you were meeting seventeen people you had never communicated with ever.

That is a correct impression. I knew vaguely who Carl was from PoS, but that’s about it.

2) What was the first alliance you made on your tribe?

Day 1, Eamon said that we should work together and I agreed.

3) What’s your assessment of the conflict that takes place in this game? Do you think the fights between contestants are legitimate or do you think it’s more for show?

Wow, I don’t really know…I guess there’s probably some of both there…certain people are more theatrical than others. I stayed pretty conflict free, which is how I hoped to play the game.

4) There’s been topics on PoS about whether ORGs are a proving ground before you do the real show. After experiencing an ORG, where do you feel this ORG lies in terms of realism?

This may be more “realistic” than the show in the sense that almost everyone is playing incredibly strategically. And it’s one thing to control a tribe from the comfort of your bedroom, and a total other one to have to deal with and live with these people. That said, I’m sure playing games like this can provide experience that may be useful for the real thing.

5) How do you feel about penalty idols? On one hand you stayed away from requesting them when you were on the outside and let the tribe implode because they went after the ones who they thought took the penalty idols. On the other hand, if there weren’t any penalty idols your tribe would’ve merged in the majority. Looking back, do you think it helped you or hurt you ultimately?

Penalizing the tribe to “help” myself is something that really goes against my grain. It’s a cool twist which made the game exciting, but I think there can be little doubt that I would probably still be playing now if they didn’t exist. And I was the early favorite to be the person to take the penalty so it almost got me kicked out for no reason.

6) In other ORGs there are rarely any mutiny offers, vote-on-a-merge, and zero penalty idols in existence. Do you prefer twists that rely on the player to take advantage of it themselves or are switches and pre-determined merges much better because you are put into situations you can’t foresee?

Probably a mix of both works out the best. I thought the vote for merge and penalty idols were good, but it seems as if mutinies don’t really accomplish much besides making the outsiders of one tribe into the outsiders of the other tribe. Remember, the reason the mutiny in Cook Islands worked is that the tribes were shuffled first.

7) Ooc says if you were on their tribe that you would’ve made it to the end and won. Do you buy that? Do they really mean that or is it BS in hopes of buying your jury vote?

Made it too the end…probably…I meshed well with those guys, and from personal experience they stick together…would I have won? It’s hard to say, but if I had the 3rd idol and their support and got a couple key immunities it could have been…but there may have been some kneecap sucking there…

[8)] Your tribe had significantly more ORG veterans than Ooc. Was there any information given from the veterans lecturing you how ORGs are played or did you use your own strategies and act independently? And what led you to allying with the most experienced Facebook ORGer in Chris Hooker?

I didn’t get any real information from veterans about strategy. What you saw was pretty much all me…They did give me tips about the other players, i.e. “Chris and Jamie tend to work together”, which I tried to consider as I strategized.

As for Hooker, I didn’t know *exactly* how good he was until it was too late. Basically we had a lot of things in common regarding how we approached the game. I felt that Eamon and Leif were in it to the end together, so I built close ties with Chris, whom I felt I could beat in the end.

9) Is there anybody who you hold solely responsible for you getting voted out?

Myself for not noticing 2 B’s in that final challenge and not sharing answers with Lister? By the time I didn’t have immunity, it got to the point where clearly everyone’s best move was to get rid of me…if anyone had wanted to flip the previous vote was the big opportunity…It was a bunch of little things which led to this, beginning with the blindside of Hooker, and ending when Shyam stayed loyal to Ooc.

10) You’re now juror number four. How does that line up with your expectations heading into the game?

Well, my goal was to beat your pregame pick for me…I didn’t really have any real expectations, but I thought that if I could survive a couple votes I might be around for a while.

11) You said in round three or four that this would be your first and last ORG. After hearing the feedback from past and present players that they really liked watching you play, has your mind changed at all? People are curious what the ORG future holds for you.

To be clear, I said that the day after waking up at 4:30 a.m. to participate in a challenge which we didn’t even win, so that was my low point in the game. I back off that statement. It turns out that this summer, I’m going to be going away every 5 weeks or so, starting in mid May, so I don’t think I will be able to take on a new game until the fall, but if something interesting opens up then, don’t be surprised to see me again.

12) Who do you want to win? Who do you think will win? Who do you want to be voted out next? Who do you think will be voted out next?

I want Lister to win, but out of the people who I feel have a shot, I like Mike. I still don’t have an good sense of the Ooc inner tribe dynamics, but I’ll guess the final 3 will be Dave and David, with David winning. It would make my day if IDK-boy got voted out next, but I’d be shocked if it wasn’t Lister.

13) If you have any other thoughts, please share.

Before Chris got blindsided, we were making tentative plans to team up with Kristine and Carl…Imagine if we had taken them to the merge with us…I guess we should have let them know…

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